3 July 2020

BTCUSD longs daily chart

Bitcoin falling wedge pattern suggests a bullish breakout, but one indicator suggests the opposite, 61% of BTC haven’t moved in over a year and what it meant last time it happened, ETH’s is in limbo and where it might go

BTC/USD daily chart

03 july btcusd daily

Bitcoin price continues the downwards trend within a falling wedge pattern. Yesterday, BTC re-tested the support line at $8,950 and bounced back. Now it is likely on the way to test the resistance, which would be in a $9,400 territory, but first it needs to cross a 20-day moving average that provides some resistance as well. The falling wedge is considered to be a bullish pattern, however, a long-lasting bearish divergence on a daily Relative Strength Index warns of a different outcome. As the wedge is nearing the tip, we might see the confirmation to either side in the matter of several days.

03 july glassnode

Looking at the bigger picture, according to Glassnode analysis, 61% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in more than 1 year. The Supply Last Active chart above shows a new all-time-high. Last time this was the case in 2017, bitcoin went on a massive bull run. This could be a sign that bitcoin might repeat the previous cycle and marks the beginning for the next potential bull run.

BTC/USD daily chart

03 july ethusd daily

After breaking a major support level at the end of June, ether is currently consolidating at the $220-230 level. It is right in between a narrow range of the 20 and 50-day moving averages which align with the 50% on a Fibonacci Retracement. Lucis SAR is on the bearish side, MACD is in the red and Relative Strength Index shows a bearish divergence as well. The bearish sentiment might drive ETH price to test the 100-day moving average at $210. In an optimistic scenario, if bulls take over, ETH might rise to $245, testing the resistance (that used to be a support).

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