Market Watch

January 21, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin rising wedge pattern, short term bullish and bearish targets, weekly bullish indicators and ETH to test $180

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-21-2020



Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average, but was not able to close above, which prompted a 6% correction. We are currently consolidating at $8,600, gaining strength for the next move. The price should either bounce back from the support line of the rising wedge and brake above the 200-day moving average or, if the support won’t be able to hold, test $8,400 which is supported by the .50 Fibonacci retracement line.



BTC/USD 4hr chart

jan-21-2020



Let’s take a closer look at the rising wedge on a 4-hourly chart. BTC tested the resistance line 3 times and if it finally breaks above it, then it can be a very bullish signal. However, at the moment of writing BTC is re-testing the support level and it is a decisive moment for how the market will play out.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-21-2020



On a weekly time frame, MACD indicator is still in the red, but seems like it is about to flip. Moreover, Lucid SAR has already turned bullish, indicating an entry point.



ETH/USD daily chart

jan-21-2020



Ether is consolidating above the weekly moving average and it seems like it might try to reach the $180 price level again, before it tops out. This is also where the most volume on VPVR kicks in. However, further ETH price action will strongly depend on bitcoin behaviour, as it still often mimics the pattern of the mother of all cryptos in general.





January 17, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin dominance decrecrease, trend reversal on a weekly chart and ETH 30% growth

BTC/USD dominance chart

jan-17-2020



Bitcoin dominance falls back significantly as altcoins are gaining momentum. Ethereum rose over 10% against bitcoin in the past 4 days. Dash is experiencing a slight correction after a massive 150% spike, trading at 0.0138BTC at time of press. Litcoin is also gaining value against bitcoin, achieving 20% growth. According to Tradingview calculations bitcoin dominance touched the low at 66% which last was the case in July 2019 and it is currently supported at the 67% level.Bitcoin dominance falls back significantly as altcoins are gaining momentum. Ethereum rose over 10% against bitcoin in the past 4 days. Dash is experiencing a slight correction after a massive 150% spike, trading at 0.0138BTC at time of press. Litcoin is also gaining value against bitcoin, achieving 20% growth. According to Tradingview calculations bitcoin dominance touched the low at 66% which last was the case in July 2019 and it is currently supported at the 67% level.



BTC/USD daily & weekly chart

jan-17-2020



Bitcoin broke out of the long stretched downward trending channel and passed through resistance level on the daily chart. It seems like BTC might close the weekly candle above the $8,000 price point, which would be a confirmation for a trend reversal. Bitcoin broke out of the long stretched downward trending channel and passed through resistance level on the daily chart. It seems like BTC might close the weekly candle above the $8,000 price point, which would be a confirmation for a trend reversal.



BTC/USD daily chart

jan-17-2020



Right now the 200-day moving average serves as a resistance that bitcoin is reaching to test. VPVR also indicates that there is very little volume being traded at the current price level. So, we might expect BTC to slip back down to $8700-8600 for support or break above the psychological level at $9,000 in a rapid fashion. Right now the 200-day moving average serves as a resistance that bitcoin is reaching to test. VPVR also indicates that there is very little volume being traded at the current price level. So, we might expect BTC to slip back down to $8700-8600 for support or break above the psychological level at $9,000 in a rapid fashion.



ETH/USD daily chart

jan-17-2020



Ethereum is recovering nicely after a prolonged slump and gained back over 30% since the beginning of the month. The RSI is entering overbought territory, which might indicate an upcoming correction. However, there is an appealing target at the $180 level, where VPVR peaks on a daily chart and that aligns with a 200-day moving average. In any case, there is a $160-150 support range established in October and September 2019, confirmed by yesterday’s consolidation to ~158$ and the subsequent rally. Ethereum is recovering nicely after a prolonged slump and gained back over 30% since the beginning of the month. The RSI is entering overbought territory, which might indicate an upcoming correction. However, there is an appealing target at the $180 level, where VPVR peaks on a daily chart and that aligns with a 200-day moving average. In any case, there is a $160-150 support range established in October and September 2019, confirmed by yesterday’s consolidation to ~158$ and the subsequent rally.





January 10, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin almost 10% correction, altcoins following the down trend, bitcoin as a safe-haven in a political and financial instability

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-10-2020



After bitcoin price went up 22% over the past week and reached its peak at $8,400, it experienced a 9% correction. BTC tested resistance and got rejected by the 20 week moving average, which is also where a 50% Fibonacci Retracement lies. The price is currently at an important support level of $7,750. If it can’t hold here, it will probably fall back to the next (61,8%) Fibonacci level at around $7,200. In a bullish scenario, if bitcoin successfully breaks above the two resistance levels at $7,900 and $8,000, we can expect a rally back to $8,460.

One of the narratives behind recent bitcoin price behavior is assigned to it being a safe-haven during unstable political situations. Any time when the conflict between the USA and Iran heated up, we have seen a big spike in BTC price, as well as increases in gold and silver.



jan-10-2020



Few days after the initial price increase, when the US president Donald Trump backed off war footing with Iran, the price of bitcoin started to decline along with other safe-haven assets.

This was not the first time that the cryptocurrency proved itself as a hedge asset during a global turmoil. Back in 2013 during the financial crisis in Cyprus, BTC started a bull run. In the midst of Venezuelian crisis in 2018, bitcoin trading volume skyrocketed as the population lost trust in their native fiat currency and government. In Argentina, BTC trading volume reached all-time high by the end of 2019, following the significant plunge in value of the Argentine pesos. Finally, at the height of the trade war between the US and China, the bitcoin price increased over 160%.



Altcoins following BTC into correction

jan-10-2020



Following the BTC price, other cryptocurrencies are also heading down. ETH has fallen 8% since it’s previous peak at $147, XRP went on an 11% decline and Litecoin is down 9%.





January 7, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin reaches $8,000, XRP spikes 15% spike in one day and all-time high bitcoin hash rate

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-07-2020



Bitcoin price went up over 16% over the past 5 days, reaching $8,000 mark. BTC is also finally breaking out of the descending channel in bulls’ favor. The 20-day moving average is about to cross 50-day one, giving us a bullish signal. Furthermore, according to Wyckoff price action analysis method the accumulation trend surpassed it’s spring stage, that is another bullish indicator. A spring is often followed by one or several tests and then the price advance on “increasing spread and relatively higher volume”. However, so far the spike in price has not been supported by a significant daily volume.



Wyckoff price action analysis method

jan-07-2020



BTC/USD 1hr chart

jan-07-2020



On a 1-hour chart, there is what seems to be a bull flag forming, that makes traders speculate weather BTC has enough strength to reach the next target at $8,200. This however might not happen so soon, as bitcoin has already reached an overbought territory on hourly Relative Strength Index.



XRP spikes 15% in one day

jan-07-2020



In the meanwhile, XRP experienced a massive 15% spike within a day. Prior to that the price has been on a consistent decline since November last year. After such a drastic growth follows the expected correction and the price is sliding down to $0.21660 at the moment of writing. The significant surge to the upside is mostly explained by Binance launching XRP futures contracts.



Bitcoin's hash rate all-time high

jan-07-2020



The new year kicked off with the record high hash rate, reaching over 119 EH/s. Hash rate measures how much power the Bitcoin network is consuming to generate blocks. More power means better network security and suggests interest in potential profitability of mining BTC. In anticipation of an upcoming halving this year, miners will either have to significantly scale their operations or shut down as the reward for mining will be halved.





January 3, 2020



Key takeaways: New bitcoin, 9,000,000% rise in the past decade, falling wedge to break out on a weekly and today’s 6% growth

BTC/USD monthly chart

jan-03-2020



Bitcoin price went up around 9 million% , making it the best investment of the past decade. Mainstream media, like Bloomberg and CNBC are picking up the topic again. further spreading the word and awareness. Looking at the monthly chart, the last candle of the year closed above a major support level provided by a 20 monthly moving average. Going below that level would mean a further dramatic fall as there is no VPVR support from $6,500 to $4,000. Yet, BTC was able to hold and is now drawing what now seems to be a green candle, which might be potential for a trend reversal.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-03-2020



On a weekly time frame, bitcoin remains within a falling wedge pattern, getting closer to the point of breakout. The break to the upside would require some momentum to pass through the 20 weekly moving average resistance level.



BTC/USD hourly chart

jan-03-2020

After yesterdays’ 5% plunge, BTC rapidly gained 6% within 3 hours reaching $7,200. The $400 price change could be explained by a short squeeze and $16 million worth of bitcoin short positions were liquidated on Bitmex. This brought BTC back from the oversold territory on an hourly RSI.