Market Watch

May 26, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin trades below $9000, bearish divergence suggest further decline, CME Futures are about to bring some volatility due to expiration date, ETH breakeout is imminent



BTC/USD daily chart

26 may btcusd daily1



Bitcoin price broke below $9,000 on Sunday and bounced off the support line at $8,600. If BTC breaks below that support, we might see an even greater decline. In this case, bears would gain traction that might drive the price down to the next closest support at 0,236 Fibonacci Retracement level ($8,170).

To support that outcome, there is a noticeable bearish divergence on the daily Relative Strength Index. To the upside we see the 20-day moving average that will now serve as resistance together with Lucid SAR. We can expect some volatility on the market as CME Bitcoin futures contracts will expire this Friday.



26 may btcusd daily



Open Interest in BTC Futures is currently higher than at the peak in 2019. As investors tend to settle their contracts prior to the expiration, this usually causes some visible action.



ETH/USD daily chart

26 may ethusd daily



Ethereum is trading in a narrowing range between the support line that currently holds at $202 and the resistance range at $215-230. As ETH is running out of room for action, a breakout is inevitable. MACD suggests a bear trend and if moving averages wouldn’t be able to provide support, we might see the price coming down to $174.





May 22, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin diamond pattern played out, 40BTC transferred by supposedly real Satoshi, ETH price is down despite the Golden Cross and 2,2% of all ether is long



BTC/USD daily chart

22 may btcusd daily



The Diamond top pattern on the daily chart got confirmed as bitcoin price went down 8%.. It broke below the 20-day moving average and is currently supported by 0,786 Fibonacci Retracement level. Reminding you, the target for this pattern is approximately at $7,750, where the pattern initially started. 100 and 200 day moving averages are also in a close proximity to that level. There is a bearish divergence on a Relative strength Index, adding support to the downward trend.





The decrease in BTC price started right after news came out about a possibility that Satoshi Nakamoto made a transfer of 40BTC. According to Whale Alert post on Twitter the wallet was dormant since 2009 and those coins were mined during the first month of Bitcoin's existence. This once again discredits Craig Wright’s claim of being a real Satoshi, as he previously stated that he no longer has access to that address. Many others in the community, including Adam Back and Nic Carter, provide reasoning why this is highly unlikely to be a transfer made by the real Satoshi.



ETH/USD daily chart

22 may ethusd daily



Following Bitcoin, ETH price also declined 8%, despite a Golden Cross on the daily chart. Price was prevented from falling any further by the 100-day moving average. The closest support for ether is at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement level ($193).



ETH/USD longs weekly chart

22 may eth longs



However, it seems like the correction did not scare off investors who remain optimistic and long ETH. 2.2% of all ether in existence is currently margin long on Bitfinex exchange. That is a 235% increase from the beginning of the year.





May 19, 2020


Key takeaways: How to trade bitcoin diamond pattern, Golden Cross on ETH chart, bitcoin transaction fee on the rise and hash rate is decreasing significantly



BTC/USD daily chart

19 may btcusd daily



Bitcoin price action has formed a diamond top pattern on a daily chart. The bearish diamond formation usually occurs at the top of a considerable uptrend. If this is the case here, BTC price would currently be consolidating before an upcoming decline. In order to execute this pattern, we need to wait for a confirmation of breaking the lower support line, which would suggest an increased momentum for a probable decrease in price. The probability of a downward breakout is 57% and the target target is likely to be at the beginning of formation, which is approximately at $7,750.



Bitcoin Average Transaction Fee

19 may fees



After the halving, bitcoin transaction fees increased to $4, as mempools are getting fuller, while miners are seeking higher incentives. Just recently it reached an 11-month high at $5,16.



19 may hashrate



Another noticeable consequence of the halving is a ~20% drop of the network hash rate. This is also a result of miners generating substantially less revenue now and thus shutting down inefficient mining rigs. Nonetheless, hashing power remains widely distributed to maintain security of the network. According to the Blockchain.com hashrate distribution pie chart, F2Pool, BTC.com, Pooling and AntPool are still the predominant leaders.



ETH/USD daily chart

19 may ethusd daily



Ether reached exactly the territory mentioned in our previous issue and went above the $215 mark yesterday. Today we can see a Golden Cross occurring on the chart, as the 50-day moving average touched the 200-day average and is about to complete the cross. This would indicate a bullish signal in the near future. To support this, MACD is also on the verge of creating a cross to the green side. Another driver for price increase could be that Reddit is launching Ethereum-based tokens for its r/Cryptocurrency and r/FortNiteBR subreddits. Users will be paid with the MOON and BRICK tokens and used as “community points”.





May 15, 2020


Key takeaways: What indicators say about bitcoin price action, filling the gap theory proven right on CME Futures chart and ETH is in the bear trend.



BTC/USD daily chart

15 may btcusd daily



Bitcoin made a second attempt to re-test the resistance at $9,950 and got rejected going down 6% today. The 20-day moving average is providing support and aligns with the 0,786 Fibonacci Retracement level.

Lucid SAR found the growth over the past week positive enough to switch to support too. The 50-day moving average is reaching to cross the 200-day one. Whether we will see the Golden Cross, a bullish breakout pattern, will depend on how the price action unfolds by the end of this week.

VPVR suggests that BTC might come down to $8,700 price, as it has the most trading volume at this level. Relative Strength Index came down from the overbought territory and is giving mixed signals, showing the signs of an upcoming bearish divergence.



Bitcoin CME Futures daily chart

15 may cme



In our previous issue, we mentioned a gap that was formed on a bitcoin CME Futures daily chart. Filling the gap theory was proven to be right once again, as the BTC immediately came back to fill the distance between $8,800 and $10,000.



ETH/USD daily chart

15 may ethusd daily



Ether is down 12% from its recent high and MACD indicator suggests bearish trend. ETH price is currently trapped in between 20 and 50-day moving averages. And it appears that we might see a Golden Cross on ETH daily chart as well. It now may come down to test the support at about $192. This support level was able to hold since mid-March and bounced back on at least 4 occasions. In a bullish turn of events, ether might return to trade in the $215-$230 zone.





May 12, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin halving happened, BTC price correction, CME Futures gap to fill, hash rate is on the rise and ETH bearish at least in the near future



One of the most anticipated event of this year bitcoin halving took place yesterday, on May 11th. At that moment bitcoin was trading at $8,500. Let’s see how it affected BTC price behaviour.



BTC/USD daily chart

12 may btcusd daily



Bitcoin price is experiencing 13% corrections after reaching the resistance of a major triangle pattern. The price slided back to 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level and finally found support at the 20-weekly moving average. Breaking below that level at $8,000 could mean BTC entering a bear trend. The bearish divergence on the daily RSI suggests bitcoin price to fall further, possibly to get supported by the 50-day moving average at $7,500 or go all the way to $5,700 to test the support of the overlaying triangle pattern.



Bitcoin CME Futures daily chart

12 may cme daily



On the other hand, there is a strong bullish sign presented on a daily bitcoin CME Futures chart. There is a big gap that historically almost always gets filled. In order to fill this gap, BTC would need to return to $10,000. This might mean another almost 15% growth.



Bitcoin hash rate

12 may hashrate



Bitcoin hash rate is on the rise reaching 136 EH/s prior to halving. It has since dropped slightly to 124 EH/s after the event. Now miners block reward has been cut in half, from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.



ETH/USD daily chart

12 may ethusd daily



As for Ether, it finally broke below the upwards trending channel. The price is down 13% so far this month and currently trapped between 100 and 200 day moving averages. Lucid SAR is on the upside and MACD flipped to the red zone, suggesting a bear trend for the near future.





May 5, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin is up 134% since the last dip, price behaviour a week before the halving, triangle pattern on a BTC weekly chart suggests correction and ETH shows bearish signs


BTC/USD daily chart

05 may btcusd daily



Bitcoin broke out of a rising wedge 16% to the upside, supported by increased trading volume. Relative Strength Index reached an overbought territory on the daily chart.

The current price is near the 0,786 Fibonacci Retracement level, exactly the point where the price broke down on March 7th. The 20-day moving average is attempting to cross 100 and 200-day moving averages, which would be an even more bullish sign.

The continuation of growth in price is reasonable to assume as the important halving event is going to happen in less than a week. Since the last price dip on March 13th, the bitcoin price increased by 134%.



BTC/USD weekly chart

05 may btcusd weekly



However, let’s consider a different scenario: on the weekly chart, bitcoin has been creating a larger triangle since December 2017. Ever since then BTC, has been establishing lower highs and higher lows, bouncing within the pattern. As the price has now reached the upper resistance, there is a possibility bitcoin might come down to test the support again, before making a deciding move out of this greater pattern.



ETH/USD weekly chart

05 may ethusd daily



Ether has a more steady growth within an upward trending channel. The price broke below the 0.236 Fibonacci level and is currently consolidating at around $210. However, some bearish signs start to appear. There is a subtle bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index and Lucid SAR just flipped to the resistance side. ETH might come down to test the support level at $180.





April 28, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin and ether bulls showing strength, rising wedge on BTC daily chart, fear on the market is slowly reducing and “bitcoin halving” reached all-time high on Google search


BTC/USD daily chart

28 apr btcusd daily



Bitcoin price broke above a key resistance level at $7,600 after increasing almost 14% in the past week. It was faced with a 200-day moving average resistance and it appears a rising wedge pattern is forming on the chart. If this is the case, we might see BTC testing the support level at around $7,300.

However, considering the upcoming halving event, the hype around the cryptocurrency might drive the price to break above the pattern and meet the first target at 0,618 Fibonacci Retracement level at the $7,957 mark.

VPVR indicator suggests a further jump to at least $8,300, as historically there is a low trading volume in between.

In a bearish turn of events, if a rising wedge pattern will play out, the target to the downside would be the beginning of the wedge, which is at $5,420. Of course, there are several significant support levels on the way down, like a 50-day moving average, 0,382 Fibonacci Retracement at $6,390 and historical $5,800 level.



ETH/USD daily chart

28 apr ethusd daily



Ether bulls also showed some strength, as the price broke above a 100-day moving average. Moreover, 20-day MA is about to cross the 200-day one, which would be a very bullish sign. Relative Strength Index is in the upper-mid level and still has room to the upside. Nonetheless, ETH has been bouncing between the support and resistance lines within an upwards trending channel. As ether tested $200 level and got rejected, it might now go down to test the support again at about $175.



28 apr fear greed



The fear on the crypto market started to descend slowly, as “Extreme Fear” that prevailed for a long time has now switched to “Fear” on a Fear & Greed Index.



28 apr halving search



While Google search for bitcoin halving has reached an all-time high. Interestingly enough, it is mostly European countries like Switzerland, Netherlands, Austria, Germany and Slovenia that contributed to the search spike.





April 24, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin price is up 10%, indicators looking bullish, but exhausted, what stimulated BTC recovery and ETH bullish vs bearish scenario


BTC/USD daily chart

24 apr btcusd daily



Bitcoin price is up 10% this week after it bounced off the upward trending support at $6,840 and the 50-day moving average. It seems like currently BTC is heading to the 0.618 Fibonacci Retracement level with the 200-day moving average being on its way.


Indicators are looking bullish, but exhausted:

  • The 20-day moving average crossed above the 50-day one.
  • The steady growth provides a continuous moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) being in a green territory, although lately it’s been below 70.
  • Lucid SAR provides support from below, nearing the price action.

Overall Bollinger Bands are squeezing the price in a narrow corridor, giving us an indicator of a coming major movement. If bears prevail and bitcoin breaks below the support, we might see a drastic decline. The next closest support is at $6,400, where the 0,382 Fibonacci level lies. However, it is possible we might see an even further price fall to $5,840 in a very bearish scenario. After a panic sell-off in March, bitcoin price was able to recover over 80% of its value. This positive comeback could be attributed to two major factors: 1) the unstable situation on traditional financial markets that encourages traders and investors to seek for an alternative 2) the upcoming halving that usually is accompanied by a noticeable growth in price.



ETH/USD daily chart

24 apr ethusd daily



ETH is also showing some bullish behaviour, crossing above 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. It is currently conquering the 100-day MA. If the bulls have enough power to break above 0.382 Fibonacci Retarcement, we might see ether reaching the $200 mark. In a bearish turn of events, the support lies at the $170 price level. Unlike bitcoin, ETH does not seem to be ready for a decisive break out of the pattern just yet.





April 17, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin price in the middle of bulls and bears war before the decisive move, Rainbow chart suggests the entry point, ETH is finally above 50-day MA


BTC/USD daily chart

17 apr btcusd daily



Bitcoin price tested the support level again, broke slightly below and bounced back almost 12%. The price growth stopped at 50% on a Fibonacci Retracement and is currently trading at the $7,000 level.


BTC remains within an upwards trending tunnel and keeps crossing the EMA ribbon. The fakeout also confused MACD, as it was about to cross to the bearish side. The spike in price straightened out the lines and now the indicator is building green blocks again. Yesterday’s short plunge was supported by a 38,20% Fibonacci level at $6,480 and touched the Lucid SAR indicator, that is also very close to flip to the other side and become a resistance.



Bitcoin “Rainbow” chart

17 apr rainbow chart



An interesting chart to look at right now is a logarithmic “Rainbow” chart that shows historical price levels. The current price is at the very low spectrum of the rainbow, that suggests a great entry point to buy bitcoin. Although, this chart should not be taken as financial advice, so far it has been a pretty accurate way to indicate when bitcoin is undervalued or overbought. It also demonstrates the pattern of price behaviour nearing the halving. Reminding you that halving that usually happens every 4 years is going to happen in about 24 days.



ETH/USD daily chart

17 apr ethusd daily



Ether is currently trading at a $170 price level, above the EMA ribbon. Yesterday, when bulls showed some strength, ETH finally broke above the 50-day moving average. In order to see further growth, ETH has yet to overcome the resistance of 100 and 200 day moving averages and potentially reach the 38,20% Fibonacci Retracement level. Alternatively, in a bearish scenario the price can slip back to the closest support at $153.





April 14, 2020


Key takeaways: BTC/USD price broke below, but not decisively, ether’s calm before the storm and bitcoin is a less volatile asset than oil.


BTC/USD daily chart

14 apr btcusd daily



After crossing the EMA ribbon over the past week, bitcoin tested the support level at $6,800 and broke below. Even though the red candle broke out of the pattern and went 5% down in one day, it closed almost at the same level it started. So, despite the bearish move, bulls gave a good rebuff, bringing the price back to $6,900. The price is yet again squeezed between 20 and 50 moving averages. Lucid SAR remains on the supportive side, but it is getting closer to the price action. MACD is on the verge of flipping to the red territory and since the trading volume has not picked up, we are yet to see the major move in the upcoming days.



ETH/USD daily chart

14 apr ethusd daily



Ether has been moving sideways over the three days around the $158 price level. 20 and 50 day moving averages are coming closer and giving ETH less room for volatility. The outcome of the breakout will largely depend on bitcoin price, as both currencies are in the “calm before the storm” mode right now.



14 apr volatility



The price stagnation goes across all cryptocurrencies: XRP, ADA, LTC, BNB are trading with low volatility and volume since mid-March. This is the first time since 2016 that bitcoin is a less volatile asset than oil.



Bitcoin fear & greed index

14 apr fear greed



Relatively lower interest in the crypto market right now is mostly explained by the challenging and uncertain time in the world, because of the Coronavirus pandemic. The bitcon fear & greed index, although lower than in the past week, still remains in the “extreme fear” territory.





April 7, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin major price move is imminent, targets for bullish and bearish scenario, ETH broke out to the upside, will it do that again soon?


BTC/USD daily chart

7 apr btcusd daily



Bitcoin is trading within a tightening upwards trending range and the volume keeps declining. This classic pattern gives us a sign that a major movement is coming and the breakout can happen either way, so let’s consider the following three possibilities.


There is a bit more resistance for bitcoin to go to the upside now, as it faces the 50-day moving average. Bulls would need to trade more decisively to build up momentum and break above $7,500. In this case, the closest target would be near the $8,000 price that aligns with a 0.618 Fibonacci level.


In a bearish turn of events, BTC might test the support level at $6,500. If the 20-day moving average won’t be able to hold, we might see an even steeper decline. The target could potentially be at $5,800-5,900. This is a historically significant level that served as support in the 2018 bear market.


Finally, there is a chance that the price will test the support at $6,500, bounce back and then make a decisive break above the narrowing pattern.

Since bitcoin has been growing steadily over the past 3 weeks, the indicators remain bullish/neutral:

  • MACD shows no signs of turning bearish for now
  • BTC price is at the very top of EMA ribbon
  • Lucid SAR is still far below the current price
  • RSI is in an upper-mid level with no signs of divergence


ETH/USD daily chart

7 apr ethusd daily



Ether broke out of its tightening range to the upside and met the resistance of all three moving averages for 50,100 and 200-days. ETH might get supported by the EMA ribbon, which leaves very little room for volatility. Trading within the $166-178 price range should result in another breakout. Similar to bitcoin, the indicators for ETH/USD chart show no signs of a bearish outcome for the time being.





April 3, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin is on the rise, upcoming major move for ether and does bitcoin take safe-haven status back?


BTC/USD daily chart

3 apr btcusd daily



Bitcoin was able to establish a higher high in an upwards trending channel and it is up 15% since the beginning of the week. The RSI recovered to mid level from being oversold on March 12th. BTC now has a support of a 20-day moving average on a daily chart. However, in order to confirm a bullish trend it still needs to surpass the EMA ribbon. Bitcoin made an attempt to cross the ribbon by reaching $7,200, but got quickly pushed down by bears. In the scenario, where bulls take over and drive the price through the resistance, we might see it reaching the $8,500 target, where the previous support was.



S&P500 and Dow Jones daily chart

3 apr stocks



The first quarter ends with Bitcoin outperforming S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. After the initial crash along with the stock market and commodities, Bitcoin was able to recover and is doing better than these major US stock indices. So far, this year S&P 500 lost over 20%, Dow Jones more than 25% and Nasdaq almost 15%. Bitcoin is down only 5% and gold is up 5% in 2020.



ETH/USD daily chart

3 apr ethusd daily



Unlike bitcoin, ETH was not able to make a higher high and reach the Fibonacci Retracement target of $153. It got as far as the $149 price point and now needs another attempt to move to the upside. It is now also supported by a 20-day moving average. Low volatility creates a tightening range and the volume is declining as well. Such behaviour is usually calling for a major move in the near future.