Market Watch

March 27, 2020


Key takeaways: Death cross on bitcoin daily chart, major decrease in Bitcoin hashrate and difficulty adjustment and what is happening with ETH


BTC/USD daily chart

27 mar btcusd daily



Bitcoin price is struggling to make any decisive move and trades at a pretty low volume against the US dollar. We’re in an upwards trending channel, but decreasing volume usually indicates that this is a consolidation phase of a greater pattern. In this case the bear flag, despite being somewhat extended, still remains valid for now. BTC currently faces a $6,800 resistance level and a 20-day moving average is now supporting from below. Furthermore, there is a strong bearish pattern forming on a daily chart that calls for a major upcoming sell off; as the 50-day moving average is about to cross the 200-day one. This technical pattern is known as a death cross and it appears when a short-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one. Although, in the past death crosses did not always carry much significance, crypto traders around the world are all seeing this signal and know what it means, which might become a self-fulfilling prophecy.


Bitcoin hash rate

27 mar hash rate



Bitcoin hash rate has decreased significantly from its recent high. After last week’s price dump, when BTC lost over 60%, mining became unprofitable for some miners with older equipment and they had to switch off their machines. The difficulty adjustment estimate that is based on changes in the network’s hashrate is projected downward almost 16%. These adjustments usually happen every two weeks in order to ensure that the Bitcoin network continues to generate new blocks about every 10 minutes. Last time such a major negative adjustment in hashrate and difficulty happened the price of bitcoin went down almost 50%.


ETH/USD daily chart

27 mar ethusd daily



Ether is consolidating at the $137 price level and slowly recovering from oversold territory on the Relative Strength Index. Although indicators are looking positive - Lucid SAR is supporting from below and MACD is in the green - there are two factors that may prevent ETH from a bullish scenario. First one being the 20-day moving average that now serves as a resistance to the upside. Considering the low overall trading volume. Ethereum doesn’t seem to have enough power for the moment to break above it. Secondly, if the bitcoin bearish scenario plays out, most likely ETH will follow it.





March 24, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin below the trend line for the first time since 2015, bear flag target in the short term, financial assets behaviour in crisis and how Federal Reserve is handling the situation


BTC/USD weekly chart

24 mar btcusd weekly



The recent panic sale across all the markets, including bitcoin, resulted in an important event on the BTC/USD weekly logarithmic chart. Bitcoin broke below one of the most important trend lines that was able to hold all the way from 2015. Bitcoin has now quite a come back to make and break through some heavy resistance to the upside.



BTC/USD daily chart

24 mar btcusd daily



In the past few days BTC tested one of the major resistance levels at $6,500, but got rejected. Right now, bitcoin price met with a 20-day moving average that will also serve as a resistance. Moreover, there is a bear flag formed on a daily chart and the pattern suggests a target at about $3,500. Reminding you there is also a CME Futures gap down at $3,570 from February 15, 2019 that aligns nicely to get filled.



24 mar tweet



Crypto analyst Willy Woo shared an interesting observation in regards to the markets behaviour during the financial crisis. This chart illustrates that after the initial plunging of all assets, over time gold starts to recover and become a hedge against the stock market. The current situation seems like the beginning of that decoupling.



There is another worrying concern that should be taken into consideration when it comes to traditional financial markets, as the United States Secretary of the Treasury Steven Mnuchin recently stated “Working with the Federal Reserve — we’ll have up to $4 trillion of liquidity that we can use to support the economy,” We are already seeing a greater financial stimulation than in 2008 crisis. This is a measure they decided to take in order to support businesses in the next 3 to 6 months. But such a “rescue” comes at a price of massively devaluing the US dollar as a currency. However, Neel Kashkari, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis doesn’t regard it as an issue, because “there is an infinite amount of cash in the Federal Reserve”. The obvious advantage in bitcoin, compared to fiat currency is that there is no way to limitlessly create more coins out of nothing.





March 20, 2020


Key takeaways: Bitcoin is up 70%, while stock market keeps struggling, bitcoin as a hedge against economic downturn


BTC/USD weekly chart

20 mar btcusd weekly



Bitcoin price is recovering and is now up over 70%, trading back above the 200-weekly moving average. The fact that the price bounced back from the support level of a downward trending channel is good news for bulls. However, for this move to be more significant, we should wait a weekly close above the moving average.


Currently, bitcoin is facing a massive resistance level that was established since 2017 (served as a support back then) and reinforced during the end of last year. In case BTC is able to break through it, the closest target according to Fibonacci Retracement level appears to be at around $8,000.



BTC/USD daily chart

20 mar btcusd daily



On a daily chart MACD indicator is reaching a bullish crossover and we see a first sign of Lucid SAR to flip into support. In the meanwhile, the stock market keeps struggling, which brings us to the potential of bitcoin decoupling from the stock market. It seems that now, bitcoin can start to be a hedge against the current financial meltdown. As the Federal Reserve is increasing supply of the US dollar to mediate COVID-related economical issues by creating new money created out of thin air that is not backed by anything, purchasing power of the dollar diminishes.



ETH/USD daily chart

20 mar ethusd daily



Ether is also getting out of the plunge with a whopping 67% growth in the past week. Trading volume has decreased significantly, but indicators are starting to look positive. The Relative Strength Index is rising from the oversold territory and Lucid SAR switched in favor of bulls.





March 17, 2020


Key takeaways: Coronavirus effect on crypto and financial markets, bitcoin consolidating at a new level, ETH is down 45% and Federal Reserve decisions


BTC/USD daily chart

17 mar btcusd daily



As the Coronavirus pandemic continues to spread, the markets are suffering greatly. Bitcoin found its low at $3,860 on March 13th, recovered about 30% and since then has been consolidating around the $5,000 price mark. Relative Strength Index indicates that BTC is still in the oversold territory and Bollinger Bands are greatly overextended. Bitcoin broke and closed below the 200-weekly moving average, which means from now on it will serve as a great resistance level. BTC price might want to re-test that weekly moving average, but in the case of rejection, we might see a further price decrease.

In this bearish scenario, the target potentially can be at $3,570, this is where an CME Futures gap occurred on the daily chart.



BTC/USD CME Futures daily chart

17 mar cme futures



Traditional safe haven assets are also failing to perform as such, as gold is down 15% and silver price fell over 35%. In order to deal with the current financial situation and panic, the Federal Reserve decided to cut the interest rate by 1%, which means it will now be 0%. Moreover, they are launching a quantitative easing program for $700 billion and eliminating the reserve requirements for banks. Fractional reserve banks are now allowed to cut their reserve to zero.



ETH/USD daily chart

17 mar ethusd daily



ETH price decreased 45% so far this month, having 4 consecutives red candle weeks. Similar to bitcoin after a big plunge, it is now consolidating and at the moment of writing is at $117. A bearish divergence on a daily RSI that has been prevailing for the past month has turned out to be brutally accurate.





March 13, 2020


Key takeaways: Beware the Ides of May, and also… Friday 13th!

At Bitwala, we saw yesterday and again today buyers outpace sellers 3:1 on both currencies. We are grateful for our customers’ continued support and belief in Bitcoin and Ethereum and wish you (and us) a speedy recovery from the current price action!

Black Friday the 13th

Brutal smackdown across all crypto-markets tonight. As we are witnessing the blackest of all Friday 13ths (this time aligning dangerously with the infamous Ides of March), the very long term trend seems intact

BTC/USD daily chart

BTCUSD1W



We’ve touched upon this line before and are hopeful that every closing price above it will cement the underlying trend. One fact that may be comforting is that during the current sell-off, the number of addresses that hold 1 BTC or more has increased significantly and is now at almost 800.000, which is an all time high. This could indicate that weak hands have been shaken out and a large number of smaller hodlers with lesser daytrading ambitions are controlling a large amount of coins.

ETH/USD weekly chart

eth weekly

ETH managed to pull back into the fibonacci range above zero despite suffering the worst pullback in recent history.

While trading well below the EMA ribbon, there is a similar very long-trend support originating from 2017 that coincides with the current price level.

Gallow’s Humour



Bitcoin icon Andreas Antonopoulos’ light-hearted take on the events of last week.

Screenshot 2020 03 13 at 11 51 19


March 10, 2020

Key takeaways: Crypto market prices go viral, Bitcoin catches the PlusToken

BTC/USD daily chart

As markets took a beating yesterday, we are for now out of usual TA waters. Zooming out all the way to 12 months ago, we can see a support that could serve as a mental barrier as it coincides with one of the weak support lines from September/October of 2019. Equally undefining but nonetheless present is a small range of heavy price activity that served as starting point of the 2019 rally and as recuperation area end of that same year. What a ride it’s been!

ETH/USD daily chart

ETH suffered from some liquidation of DeFi-funds locked up in several lending contracts. The short breach of the $200 mark that coincides with the 38% Fib support should ideally be recovered soon to not risk further sell-off. Bad news should be priced in (Corona and PlusToken), so it’s not unreasonable to hope for a bounce-back in the coming days.

PlusToken has the marketcorona’d

The general sell-off of across all asset classes prompted BTC and other cryptos to drop sharply as well. While one may be prompted to assign the whole disaster to Corona and the “flight to cash”, somecommentatorshave picked up on a movement of PlusToken bitcoins that started moving on March 7th and may have been at least partly sold off on March 8th, increasing pressure on the markets. According to some sources (CoinSwitch.co CEO being cited without a quote) the scammers may have offloaded 13.000 BTC after a thorough rinse throughmixers.





March 6, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin on the rise but we should be cautious, ether finally broke above $230 and upcoming ETH2.0 with Proof of Stake



BTC/USD daily chart

mar-06-2020



Bitcoin is up 7% this week, recovering after the latest sell off. On the 3rd and 4th of March the price was supported by the 20-week moving average, which gave some confidence to bulls. Lucid SAR flipped to the support side, however there are a few worrying signals. First one being a bearish crossover, as the 20-day moving average crossed below the 50-day moving average. Secondly, there is an extensive bearish divergence on the daily RSI that hasn't played out yet.



BTC/USD 4-hr chart

mar-06-2020



On the 4-hourly chart, there is a reversal Head and Shoulder pattern that sets a target at around $9500 in a bullish scenario. Even though the BTC price broke above the neckline, the path to the upside might not be as smooth, because there are still moving averages and 38,20% Fibonacci retracement level to cross.



ETH/USD daily chart

mar-06-2020



Ether recovered over 12% since and most importantly broke above a key resistance level at $230. Last time ETH did that was back in June 2019, subsequently going on a whopping 60% bull run. However, the indicators remain quite bearish, MACD is still in the red, bearish divergence on a daily Relative Strength Index and Lucis SAR hanging above. Moreover, there is another major resistance level at $240 that ether tested, but failed to brake above in August last year.


Fundamentally, Ethereum has some important updates coming that can massively affect the price. This week Vitalik Buterin talked about launching ETH 2.0 in summer and making Proof of Stake a reality. ETH 2.0 should resolve some current limitations, most notably scalability and speed, while maintaining the protocol decentralization. Switching to PoS will allow users to participate in Ethereum blockchain and get rewarded bypassing previous barriers.





March 3, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin attempts to recover, financial market instability, Ether hanging in between and all-time high Bitcoin hash rate



Over the last few days we saw Bitwala customers being active on the buy side of things, outpacing sellers by 5:1, a slight uptick from the week before. We interpret this as an optimistic sign of an overwhelmingly positive attitude from our clients.



BTC/USD daily chart

mar-03-2020



After falling 16% last week, Bitcoin price is now trying to recover from the slump. BTC broke below the critical 20-weekly moving average, but was able to close above it. Despite yesterday’s 6% positive growth, there is still some uncertainty in the market, as trading volume is low and indicators lean bearish. On the daily chart, we can observe a settle bearish divergence on RSI, Lucid SAR is pressing from above, EMA-Ribbon serves as a resistance to the upside and MACD is in “red” territory.


However, Bitcoin is not the only asset struggling lately, as the stock market has been falling dramatically as well. The S&P 500 was down 15%, Dow Jones Industrial average fell over 16%, making the past week the worst since the 2008 financial crisis. The markets have now started to recover from the panic as governments and central banks promised to help the global economy and safeguard financial stability in case of an even bigger virus outbreak.



ETH/USD daily chart

mar-03-2020



Ether is trading right in the middle of EMA ribbon, so a breakout to either side can be decisive. However, for now it doesn’t have a supportive or suppressive impact. As it failed to break above $230 resistance, the bears have now taken control again and might drive price down to $210. With Relative Strength Index stalled in the middle and low trading volume, this shows the indecisiveness of market players at the moment.



Bitcoin all-time high hash rate

mar-03-2020



On the bright side, on March 1st, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high hash rate at 136.2 EH/s. Miners remain bullish in anticipation of an upcoming halving that is due in less than 3 months and the dip in the market did not slow them down. High hash rate means less opportunity for miners to get a reward, but better network security.





February 28, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin price 12% fall, Bearish Divergence and CME Futures target played out, altcoins are suffering a major downfall



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-28-2020



Bitcoin is down over 12% this week, breaking down the descending channel. Earlier this week we mentioned bearish divergence on a daily RSI that played out as expected. The bitcoin price tested a 20-weekly moving average, but was still able to close above it. Breaking below this moving average would likely cause further selling pressure and push price to the next level of support at $8180.



BTC/USD CME Futures chart

feb-28-2020



Moreover, BTC has reached the target predicted by the “filling the gap” theory on CME Futures chart. However since the gap wasn’t fully closed, there is still a chance of going down to at least $8540.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-28-2020



Meanwhile, ether is taking an even larger hit, going down over 18% this week. Lucid SAR on a daily chart turned bearish and RSI signals further decrease in price. Moving to the downside, ETH can be supported by 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level.

Bitcoin dominance is recovering after a continuous 12% fall this year. ADA is down 19% against bitcoin, BNB/BTC fell 17% and Litecoin lost 14%.

Ripple price plunged over 30% from the latest high. XRP seems to be on its way to reach a Head and Shoulders pattern target. 100 day moving average provides support for now and there is significantly more resistance to the upside.



XRP/USD daily chart

feb-28-2020



Global markets are poised for their worst week since the financial crisis as investors grow increasingly worried that the coronavirus will push the world economy into recession. Many investors have grown increasingly concerned about the implications the virus may have, dumping risk assets and reverting to havens such as U.S. Treasury bonds and U.S. oil futures. Will Bitcoin also serve as a safe haven during these tumultuous times?





February 25, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin Cup & Handle long term bullish target, $17 million of BTC liquidations contracts and ether volatility decreasing



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-25-2020



Bitcoin price dropped 10% from its recent peak and started the week with a red candle. On a daily chart, BTC is currently establishing a downwards trending channel. It seems like it is going to test the support line that also aligns with the 50-day moving average. Moreover, the bearish divergence on RSI still remains, calling for a further decrease in price.



BTC/USD daily chart Cup & Handle

feb-25-2020



Another pattern worth noting is a major Cup and Handle on the daily chart. It is a bullish continuation pattern and breaking above the upper trend line of the handle is a strong bullish confirmation. Reminding you that the Cup and Handle target is the depth of the “cup” which sets it at around $13000. It is indeed an optimistic target right now, but it is also important to take into consideration that the forming of the Cup and Handle pattern happened in a stretch of 4 months. Therefore, it is a longer term target.



$17 million BTC liquidations

feb-25-2020



2020 started with a nice and steady bull trend and it appears like market players were quite optimistic expecting the price to keep growing. However, the recent bearish reversal resulted in over $17 million worth of bitcoin being liquidated on exchanges like Bitmex and Bitfinex in the past 24 hours.



BTC/USD Longs

feb-25-2020



There is a Long Squeeze happening right now that adds pressure on those who still have their long positions. Last time it resulted in a 40% squeeze and the current one is already at 16%. The sell-off causes further selling which usually prompts a tighter squeeze, ultimately prompting a further price decrease.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-25-2020



Ether is currently testing the 20-day moving average that serves as local support level. After Bollinger Bands overextended during the last sessions, they are starting to come closer together, which might indicate lesser volatility in the upcoming days as well as decrease in volume.





February 21, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin 10% crash assigned to market manipulation, ether looking bearish and BTC/USD CME futures bearish target



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-21-2020



Bitcoin broke below the upwards trading channel, falling almost 10% in one day. Once again, the EMA ribbon was able to hold BTC from further falling and is currently providing support. As mentioned in our previous issue, there was a bearish divergence on the daily RSI chart that often preludes a price decline.

Several analysts claim the recent fall was a result of market manipulation, as there were several unusual circumstances that took place:

  • The 8% fall from on the evening of 19 February happened within 30 minutes.
  • Prior to the price crash, two major exchanges (Binance and Coinbase) went on an unscheduled maintenance.
  • Whale Alert recorded a high activity of whales participating in a variety of massive transactions. According to Cryptopolitan analysis the market was manipulated by these whales.

feb-21-2020



As bitcoin broke below a very important support level and things are looking more brearish, we might go back to the scenario where BTC will fill the gap on a CME futures chart.



BTC/USD CME futures daily chart

feb-21-2020



We have mentioned filling the gap theory several times before and each time it proves to be working well in terms of target prediction. On the 4-hourly CME Futures chart there is a small unfilled gap that occured on January 24. As bitcoin went on a bull run and drifted further away from the $8540 target it seemed unlikely. However, now there is more chance of actually reaching that target in a bearish scenario. Of course there are other support levels BTC needs to break first, for example the 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-21-2020



As for ETH, we can see a double top formed on a daily chart, which is in fact a bearish technical reversal pattern. We have yet to see the pattern confirmation and if it breaks below the neckline, which aligns with the 50% Fibonacci Retracement ($240), we can expect a further decrease in price. This also coincides with a bearish divergence on a daily RSI.





February 18, 2020



Key takeaways: What indicators say about bitcoin price, ether and ripple high volatility and how speculation harms crypto



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-18-2020



After 10 days of steady growth, bitcoin is now experiencing an anticipated correction, falling down 10% from the latest peak at $10500. The EMA ribbon was able to hold the price from falling even further on a daily chart. Starting at the beginning of the year, BTC price action formed an upwards trending channel. At the moment of writing, the price is bouncing off it’s support level. However, we also see a bearish divergence on daily RSI, that might indicate breaking below the tunnel possibly to 38.20% Fibonacci Retracement level. MACD has flipped to the bearish side and Lucid SAR turned into resistance, which means bears are now dominating the market.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-18-2020



Ether is currently in a pretty volatile state as the price moves over 10% a daily chart. The correction we called in our previous issue took place and ETH price decreased to almost 20%. However, it quickly recovered and at the moment of writing, ETH is worth $267.



XRP/USD daily chart

feb-18-2020



Ether is not the only coin that experiences high volatility, as Ripple went on a 30% rollercoaster ride. Bollinger Bands are overextended and we might see some consolidation at the current price level. It is important to note that even though XRP has less resistance moving to the upside than to the downside, there is a bearish divergence on the daily chart. Bearish divergence often signals potential downtrend, while bulls are losing their grip on the market.



Speculation harms crypto

Senior economist of the UK central bank, Peter Zimmerman, in his recent paper warns that the speculation on a market harms cryptocurrencies value and utility. As the processing capacity on a blockchain is limited, during the time of high speculations transactions are getting slower and more expensive. "Speculation congests the blockchain, reducing the moneyness of cryptocurrency, and impacting its price." says Zimmerman.





February 14, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin bull run, BTC dominance at 8 months low and ether is running out of steam



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-14-2020



Bitcoin is making its way bouncing between support and resistance within an upwards trending wedge. At the moment of writing it is supported by the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. BTC remains above EMA Ribbon and Lucid SAR indicators, showing that we are still in a strongly established bull trend. However, in case bitcoin price breaks below the support line, we might see a bigger correction below $10,000.



Bitcoin dominance & altseason

feb-14-2020



Bitcoin dominance keeps plunging down, reaching 63%, according to Tradingview calculations. We haven’t seen BTC dominance to be so low since July 2019. After 13 consecutive days of red candles, only today we see what might be an attempt of Bitcoin to recover against altcoins.



ETH/BTC daily chart

feb-14-2020



It has been a great bull run for ether, as it went up 40% this month against bitcoin. As in any parabolic price move, it appears that anticipated correction is taking place, as RSI started to change trajectory and might slide down from the overbought territory. Moreover, ETH has reached a resistance level that has been a very significant support in the past. Bulls would need to gather some more strengths to break through it.





February 12, 2020



Key takeaways: BTC’s downward trend established, positive momentum on ETH/USD, the impact by the Corona, and a report by VanEck.

BTC/USD chart

btc

Bitcoin has broken the downward trend established mid-2019 with force and is now trading in an upward channel. We ideally should remain within the channel until we have gained significant distance from the 9150-9300 range which supported price through most of last year.

ETH/USD chart

eth

Ethereum’s lull has been even more pronounced than bitcoin over the last year. The entire second half of last year was spent selling off from June’s top at 340$, then falling into a prolonged downward channel along with bitcoin. After dipping as low as $120, we gained new momentum and broke the channel to the upside. Both the breaking of the channel and the current hesitation to continue the uptrend coincide with fibonacci retracement targets (if we count 50% as a fibonacci level, which it technically isn’t). Following a puristic approach, this leaves us headspace up to $250 (61,8% fib). However, one should be cautious about markets rejecting $220. At the very least, price should settle well above $170 to enable a future rally without having to retest the channel from the inside.

Corona’s impact on the crypto space

The recent outbreak of a new virus has affected the crypto mining industry in China. Mining pool BTC.top is reported to have been forced to shut down its mining facilities. This lead to a decline of more than 60% of their hash rate over the last four days. As of today, their share of total hashrate has decreased to 0,8%. Further impact is experienced on the production side. Due to the recent pause of mining machine factories and resulting delays in their after-sale services, the impact of the virus could be long-lived.

Bitcoin full nodes in Europe

The latest report on Bitcoin by VanEck, titled “The Investment Case for Bitcoin” is sharing insights into the current status of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Besides, well bespoke valuation methods like the stock-to-flow ratio, the report covers the trading and transaction volume of BTC as well as an overview of all running full nodes. Of the 10,435 nodes, Germany is ranked second with 1887 reachable nodes, and more than 30% of all nodes running in Europe.



February 7, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin bull trend confirmed, altcoin season is here, Ether is up 18% and Binance coin reaches $21



BTC/USD weekly chart

feb-07-2020



Bitcoin continues to set new weekly candles to the upside and at this point, the bull trend is pretty clear. From the beginning of the year, BTC grew over 35% in a gradual manner. The 38% Fibonacci Retarcement indeed served as a support level and it seems like BTC is now heading towards 50%. Another strong indicator in favor of bulls is the fact that we have seen the close above 20-weekly moving average, retest and successful bounce of it. Historically, 20-weekly moving average has been a very significant support and resistance line during bull and bear markets.



Altseason has arrived?

feb-07-2020



As Bitcoin dominance on the market keeps diminishing, falling to 65%, the altcoins are thriving. This is the lowest BTC dominance fell in 7 months.



BNB/USD daily chart

feb-07-2020



BNB went up over 15% over the past 3 days and is currently valued at $21,21. It has been steadily growing since the end of last year, increasing 80% in price. The RSI reached an overbought territory, so we might see a correction coming in the near future.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-07-2020



Ether is up 18% against the US dollar and 15% against bitcoin so far this month. ETH is well supported by EMA ribbon on a daily chart and similar to BTC it is heading towards 50% Fibonacci Retartecement level, unless we see a correction in the upcoming days.