Market Watch

February 14, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin bull run, BTC dominance at 8 months low and ether is running out of steam



BTC/USD daily chart

feb-14-2020



Bitcoin is making its way bouncing between support and resistance within an upwards trending wedge. At the moment of writing it is supported by the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level. BTC remains above EMA Ribbon and Lucid SAR indicators, showing that we are still in a strongly established bull trend. However, in case bitcoin price breaks below the support line, we might see a bigger correction below $10,000.



Bitcoin dominance & altseason

feb-14-2020



Bitcoin dominance keeps plunging down, reaching 63%, according to Tradingview calculations. We haven’t seen BTC dominance to be so low since July 2019. After 13 consecutive days of red candles, only today we see what might be an attempt of Bitcoin to recover against altcoins.



ETH/BTC daily chart

feb-14-2020



It has been a great bull run for ether, as it went up 40% this month against bitcoin. As in any parabolic price move, it appears that anticipated correction is taking place, as RSI started to change trajectory and might slide down from the overbought territory. Moreover, ETH has reached a resistance level that has been a very significant support in the past. Bulls would need to gather some more strengths to break through it.





February 12, 2020



Key takeaways: BTC’s downward trend established, positive momentum on ETH/USD, the impact by the Corona, and a report by VanEck.

BTC/USD chart

btc

Bitcoin has broken the downward trend established mid-2019 with force and is now trading in an upward channel. We ideally should remain within the channel until we have gained significant distance from the 9150-9300 range which supported price through most of last year.

ETH/USD chart

eth

Ethereum’s lull has been even more pronounced than bitcoin over the last year. The entire second half of last year was spent selling off from June’s top at 340$, then falling into a prolonged downward channel along with bitcoin. After dipping as low as $120, we gained new momentum and broke the channel to the upside. Both the breaking of the channel and the current hesitation to continue the uptrend coincide with fibonacci retracement targets (if we count 50% as a fibonacci level, which it technically isn’t). Following a puristic approach, this leaves us headspace up to $250 (61,8% fib). However, one should be cautious about markets rejecting $220. At the very least, price should settle well above $170 to enable a future rally without having to retest the channel from the inside.

Corona’s impact on the crypto space

The recent outbreak of a new virus has affected the crypto mining industry in China. Mining pool BTC.top is reported to have been forced to shut down its mining facilities. This lead to a decline of more than 60% of their hash rate over the last four days. As of today, their share of total hashrate has decreased to 0,8%. Further impact is experienced on the production side. Due to the recent pause of mining machine factories and resulting delays in their after-sale services, the impact of the virus could be long-lived.

Bitcoin full nodes in Europe

The latest report on Bitcoin by VanEck, titled “The Investment Case for Bitcoin” is sharing insights into the current status of the Bitcoin ecosystem. Besides, well bespoke valuation methods like the stock-to-flow ratio, the report covers the trading and transaction volume of BTC as well as an overview of all running full nodes. Of the 10,435 nodes, Germany is ranked second with 1887 reachable nodes, and more than 30% of all nodes running in Europe.



February 7, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin bull trend confirmed, altcoin season is here, Ether is up 18% and Binance coin reaches $21



BTC/USD weekly chart

feb-07-2020



Bitcoin continues to set new weekly candles to the upside and at this point, the bull trend is pretty clear. From the beginning of the year, BTC grew over 35% in a gradual manner. The 38% Fibonacci Retarcement indeed served as a support level and it seems like BTC is now heading towards 50%. Another strong indicator in favor of bulls is the fact that we have seen the close above 20-weekly moving average, retest and successful bounce of it. Historically, 20-weekly moving average has been a very significant support and resistance line during bull and bear markets.



Altseason has arrived?

feb-07-2020



As Bitcoin dominance on the market keeps diminishing, falling to 65%, the altcoins are thriving. This is the lowest BTC dominance fell in 7 months.



BNB/USD daily chart

feb-07-2020



BNB went up over 15% over the past 3 days and is currently valued at $21,21. It has been steadily growing since the end of last year, increasing 80% in price. The RSI reached an overbought territory, so we might see a correction coming in the near future.



ETH/USD daily chart

feb-07-2020



Ether is up 18% against the US dollar and 15% against bitcoin so far this month. ETH is well supported by EMA ribbon on a daily chart and similar to BTC it is heading towards 50% Fibonacci Retartecement level, unless we see a correction in the upcoming days.





January 31, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin bull trend, MACD flipped to the green side on a weekly, new record high hash rate and taxes can be paid in BTC in Switzerland



BTC/USD daily chart

jan-31-2020



Bitcoin continues its bull trend, remaining way above the 200-day moving average. It seems like the 38% Fibonacci Retracement now offers support as Bitcoin is consolidating in the $9,300-9,400 price range. There is also a possibility of a Cup and Handle pattern formed on the daily chart, which gives an optimistic $11,200 target, that lies perfectly within the Fibonacci Golden Pocket area.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-31-2020



In our issue released on January 21, we noted that the Lucid SAR indicator gave a strong bull signal on a weekly chart and it has since gone up 10%. Now, another indicator turned bullish on a weekly time frame, suggesting further growth: MACD just flipped to the green side. If the bulls continue to prevail, we might see BTC reaching the 50% Fibonacci Retracement level at around $10,150. In case of fall back, price is likely to be supported by the 20-weekly moving average.



Bitcoin hash rate

jan-31-2020



Fundamentals are supporting this recent price increase, as we have a new all-time high hash rate, that reached over 123 exahashes/sec. Moreover, there is a significant increase in the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance.



Number of BTC addresses with balance

jan-31-2020



Paying taxes with bitcoin

Two cities now in Switzerland accept tax payment in bitcoin in Switzerland. The first one, Zug aka “Crypto Valley”, started to take payments for public utilities in BTC back in 2016. Now Zermatt offers tax payers an option to pay with bitcoin, too. Switzerland being a pretty Bitcoin friendly country can set an example to other countries in pioneering crypto-financial services.





January 28, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin reaches $9,000, bullish signal on a weekly chart, CME futures gap and Deutsche Bank’s take on crypto and bitcoin

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-28-2020



Bitcoin broke out of the falling wedge and increased by 10%, reaching the pattern’s target. Moreover, it has crossed the 200-day moving average. At the moment of writing it is at the $9,000 price point.

Fibonacci Retracement suggests that the closest target is at $9,270, which seems quite possible. This is the level where BTC was trading for days, in the previous bull run attempt to break the 200-day moving average.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-28-2020



On a weekly chart, we can see that bitcoin was not only able to close above the 20-week moving average, but also retest it as a support level and now continues going to the upside. This is a significant bullish signal, because last time BTC broke above the 20 weekly moving average and was able to maintain above it, it went on a 230% bull run.



BTC/USD daily CME Futures

jan-28-2020



However, it is important to note that on a daily CME futures chart there is a gap, that historically, more often than not gets filled. Price has to go down to $8,540 in order to close this gap. Despite that, it seems like there is mostly a bullish bias currently on the market, where analytics forecast $9,500 and $10,000 targets.



Deutsche Bank on crypto and Bitcoin

Deutsche Bank published their research report which summarizes their take on digital payment, cryptocurrency and bitcoin. According to the report, bitcoin is “too volatile to be a reliable store of value”, while “cash is not a dinosaur doomed to extinction”. The report further claims that cryptocurrencies “pose a threat to political and financial stability”.





January 21, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin rising wedge pattern, short term bullish and bearish targets, weekly bullish indicators and ETH to test $180

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-21-2020



Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average, but was not able to close above, which prompted a 6% correction. We are currently consolidating at $8,600, gaining strength for the next move. The price should either bounce back from the support line of the rising wedge and brake above the 200-day moving average or, if the support won’t be able to hold, test $8,400 which is supported by the .50 Fibonacci retracement line.



BTC/USD 4hr chart

jan-21-2020



Let’s take a closer look at the rising wedge on a 4-hourly chart. BTC tested the resistance line 3 times and if it finally breaks above it, then it can be a very bullish signal. However, at the moment of writing BTC is re-testing the support level and it is a decisive moment for how the market will play out.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-21-2020



On a weekly time frame, MACD indicator is still in the red, but seems like it is about to flip. Moreover, Lucid SAR has already turned bullish, indicating an entry point.



ETH/USD daily chart

jan-21-2020



Ether is consolidating above the weekly moving average and it seems like it might try to reach the $180 price level again, before it tops out. This is also where the most volume on VPVR kicks in. However, further ETH price action will strongly depend on bitcoin behaviour, as it still often mimics the pattern of the mother of all cryptos in general.





January 17, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin dominance decrecrease, trend reversal on a weekly chart and ETH 30% growth

BTC/USD dominance chart

jan-17-2020



Bitcoin dominance falls back significantly as altcoins are gaining momentum. Ethereum rose over 10% against bitcoin in the past 4 days. Dash is experiencing a slight correction after a massive 150% spike, trading at 0.0138BTC at time of press. Litcoin is also gaining value against bitcoin, achieving 20% growth. According to Tradingview calculations bitcoin dominance touched the low at 66% which last was the case in July 2019 and it is currently supported at the 67% level.Bitcoin dominance falls back significantly as altcoins are gaining momentum. Ethereum rose over 10% against bitcoin in the past 4 days. Dash is experiencing a slight correction after a massive 150% spike, trading at 0.0138BTC at time of press. Litcoin is also gaining value against bitcoin, achieving 20% growth. According to Tradingview calculations bitcoin dominance touched the low at 66% which last was the case in July 2019 and it is currently supported at the 67% level.



BTC/USD daily & weekly chart

jan-17-2020



Bitcoin broke out of the long stretched downward trending channel and passed through resistance level on the daily chart. It seems like BTC might close the weekly candle above the $8,000 price point, which would be a confirmation for a trend reversal. Bitcoin broke out of the long stretched downward trending channel and passed through resistance level on the daily chart. It seems like BTC might close the weekly candle above the $8,000 price point, which would be a confirmation for a trend reversal.



BTC/USD daily chart

jan-17-2020



Right now the 200-day moving average serves as a resistance that bitcoin is reaching to test. VPVR also indicates that there is very little volume being traded at the current price level. So, we might expect BTC to slip back down to $8700-8600 for support or break above the psychological level at $9,000 in a rapid fashion. Right now the 200-day moving average serves as a resistance that bitcoin is reaching to test. VPVR also indicates that there is very little volume being traded at the current price level. So, we might expect BTC to slip back down to $8700-8600 for support or break above the psychological level at $9,000 in a rapid fashion.



ETH/USD daily chart

jan-17-2020



Ethereum is recovering nicely after a prolonged slump and gained back over 30% since the beginning of the month. The RSI is entering overbought territory, which might indicate an upcoming correction. However, there is an appealing target at the $180 level, where VPVR peaks on a daily chart and that aligns with a 200-day moving average. In any case, there is a $160-150 support range established in October and September 2019, confirmed by yesterday’s consolidation to ~158$ and the subsequent rally. Ethereum is recovering nicely after a prolonged slump and gained back over 30% since the beginning of the month. The RSI is entering overbought territory, which might indicate an upcoming correction. However, there is an appealing target at the $180 level, where VPVR peaks on a daily chart and that aligns with a 200-day moving average. In any case, there is a $160-150 support range established in October and September 2019, confirmed by yesterday’s consolidation to ~158$ and the subsequent rally.





January 10, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin almost 10% correction, altcoins following the down trend, bitcoin as a safe-haven in a political and financial instability

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-10-2020



After bitcoin price went up 22% over the past week and reached its peak at $8,400, it experienced a 9% correction. BTC tested resistance and got rejected by the 20 week moving average, which is also where a 50% Fibonacci Retracement lies. The price is currently at an important support level of $7,750. If it can’t hold here, it will probably fall back to the next (61,8%) Fibonacci level at around $7,200. In a bullish scenario, if bitcoin successfully breaks above the two resistance levels at $7,900 and $8,000, we can expect a rally back to $8,460.

One of the narratives behind recent bitcoin price behavior is assigned to it being a safe-haven during unstable political situations. Any time when the conflict between the USA and Iran heated up, we have seen a big spike in BTC price, as well as increases in gold and silver.



jan-10-2020



Few days after the initial price increase, when the US president Donald Trump backed off war footing with Iran, the price of bitcoin started to decline along with other safe-haven assets.

This was not the first time that the cryptocurrency proved itself as a hedge asset during a global turmoil. Back in 2013 during the financial crisis in Cyprus, BTC started a bull run. In the midst of Venezuelian crisis in 2018, bitcoin trading volume skyrocketed as the population lost trust in their native fiat currency and government. In Argentina, BTC trading volume reached all-time high by the end of 2019, following the significant plunge in value of the Argentine pesos. Finally, at the height of the trade war between the US and China, the bitcoin price increased over 160%.



Altcoins following BTC into correction

jan-10-2020



Following the BTC price, other cryptocurrencies are also heading down. ETH has fallen 8% since it’s previous peak at $147, XRP went on an 11% decline and Litecoin is down 9%.





January 7, 2020



Key takeaways: Bitcoin reaches $8,000, XRP spikes 15% spike in one day and all-time high bitcoin hash rate

BTC/USD daily chart

jan-07-2020



Bitcoin price went up over 16% over the past 5 days, reaching $8,000 mark. BTC is also finally breaking out of the descending channel in bulls’ favor. The 20-day moving average is about to cross 50-day one, giving us a bullish signal. Furthermore, according to Wyckoff price action analysis method the accumulation trend surpassed it’s spring stage, that is another bullish indicator. A spring is often followed by one or several tests and then the price advance on “increasing spread and relatively higher volume”. However, so far the spike in price has not been supported by a significant daily volume.



Wyckoff price action analysis method

jan-07-2020



BTC/USD 1hr chart

jan-07-2020



On a 1-hour chart, there is what seems to be a bull flag forming, that makes traders speculate weather BTC has enough strength to reach the next target at $8,200. This however might not happen so soon, as bitcoin has already reached an overbought territory on hourly Relative Strength Index.



XRP spikes 15% in one day

jan-07-2020



In the meanwhile, XRP experienced a massive 15% spike within a day. Prior to that the price has been on a consistent decline since November last year. After such a drastic growth follows the expected correction and the price is sliding down to $0.21660 at the moment of writing. The significant surge to the upside is mostly explained by Binance launching XRP futures contracts.



Bitcoin's hash rate all-time high

jan-07-2020



The new year kicked off with the record high hash rate, reaching over 119 EH/s. Hash rate measures how much power the Bitcoin network is consuming to generate blocks. More power means better network security and suggests interest in potential profitability of mining BTC. In anticipation of an upcoming halving this year, miners will either have to significantly scale their operations or shut down as the reward for mining will be halved.





January 3, 2020



Key takeaways: New bitcoin, 9,000,000% rise in the past decade, falling wedge to break out on a weekly and today’s 6% growth

BTC/USD monthly chart

jan-03-2020



Bitcoin price went up around 9 million% , making it the best investment of the past decade. Mainstream media, like Bloomberg and CNBC are picking up the topic again. further spreading the word and awareness. Looking at the monthly chart, the last candle of the year closed above a major support level provided by a 20 monthly moving average. Going below that level would mean a further dramatic fall as there is no VPVR support from $6,500 to $4,000. Yet, BTC was able to hold and is now drawing what now seems to be a green candle, which might be potential for a trend reversal.



BTC/USD weekly chart

jan-03-2020



On a weekly time frame, bitcoin remains within a falling wedge pattern, getting closer to the point of breakout. The break to the upside would require some momentum to pass through the 20 weekly moving average resistance level.



BTC/USD hourly chart

jan-03-2020

After yesterdays’ 5% plunge, BTC rapidly gained 6% within 3 hours reaching $7,200. The $400 price change could be explained by a short squeeze and $16 million worth of bitcoin short positions were liquidated on Bitmex. This brought BTC back from the oversold territory on an hourly RSI.