September 20, 2019
Key takeaways: Altcoin season, Stellar pump, Ether becoming a number one coin on Coinmarketcap and Cardano recovery
Altcoins are waking up
In a time of Bitcoin price stagnation, altcoins seem to have gained momentum, dropping BTC dominance to 69% (after 73% peak earlier this month).
XLM/USD daily chart
Stellar (XLM) being one of the best performing coins this week, with over 50% growth within just 3 days. It rapidly reached overbought territory with significant volume. The resistance came from the 200-day moving average and 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement level. After peaking at $0.096, XLM is now experiencing a 15% correction. There are currently over 20 billion Stellar coins in circulating supply, which makes it the 10th largest token by market cap.
ADA/USD daily chart
Cardano has been showing a steady growth over the past week, going up over 25% after bottoming out at $0.043. The daily candle has closed above the EMA ribbon, showing a parabolic move, however ADA then followed Bitcoin to the downside, retracing 5%.
As for Ether, it briefly experienced being the number one cryptocurrency on Coinmarketcap, as BTC disappeared from the spot, pricing at $0 per Bitcoin.
Users also have received price alert notifications that the price is below $5300 and is currently at $0.
As for the charts, ETH's performance over the past 2 weeks has been quite positive, with almost a 30% increase in price. There is a strong trend line going to the upside on an hourly chart, so in case the price passes through the EMA ribbon it might bounce off the $212 price level, before heading higher.
ETH/USD 1hr chart
September 17, 2019
Key Takeaways: Bullish and bearish scenarios on a bigger timeframe, repeating history, the growth of SegWit transactions and Facebook's Libra ban in Germany
The calm before the storm
Bitcoin price is experiencing extremely low volatility within a major descending triangle. EMA ribbons have completely lost their significance, as the price is moving sideways and the volume continues to decrease.
BTC/USD weekly chart
Let’s take a closer look at the bigger time-frame of bitcoin price movement, as there are two scenarios that can play out. The current market is often compared to the beginning of 2015 bull market, as there are similarities on the logarithmic weekly chart, as shown above.
In 2015, bitcoin price broke above the EMA ribbon and formed a triangle much like the one we can find now and went on a huge bull run. Others, on the contrary, compare the move with the descending triangle in 2017-2018, which resulted in a massive breakout to the downside.
Either way, the outcome will be clear very soon and will likely be drastic, as the current triangle pattern has been nearly played out.
BTC/USD monthly chart
Another long-time frame chart shows at the monthly Stochastic RSI and there are some similarities between the previous and current price movement. After the RSI broke the 20 level, it rapidly reached 80. At the same time, bitcoin price crossed the EMA ribbon, which is where the bull market took off. This is exactly where we are at right now.
Growth of SegWit transactions
SegWit transactions have reached an all-time high and now account for more than 50% of Bitcoin payments. The adoption of Segregated Witness lowers the price of transactions on the blockchain while making transactions smaller, fitting more of them into one block, subsequently speeding confirmation times. It is estimated that if 100% of BTC transactions were using SegWit, it could potentially grow bitcoin blockchain capacity fourfold by saving 75% blockspace (equallying a 4x increase in average transaction confirmation speed).
Germany to ban Facebook's Libra
According to the French Finance Minister, France and Germany shouldn’t allow Facebook’s cryptocurrency Libra to operate in Europe as it “fails to convince that those risks will be properly addressed." Olaf Scholz and Bruno Le Maire came to an agreement that a private corporation cannot claim monetary power. On top of that, Libra is facing tough scrutiny by Swiss central banks about regulatory issues. One of the overarching criticisms against bitcoin used to be about volatility. It will be interesting to see how governments will argue against future attempts to build “private” money when they come in the form of “stable” coins backed with assets, bonds and commodities.
13 September 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD descending triangle, Bitcoin dominance and hash rate
In a short time-frame, BTC has formed a bullish falling wedge as the price bounced between support and resistance in a downward trend. This has all occurred within a large descending triangle.
Considering the pattern, the target price should be at around $10800, however, taking into account a major resistance line from the descending triangle, it is reasonable to estimate a price that does not exceed $10650.
On a daily chart, Bitcoin volatility is significantly decreasing within a tightening corridor along with decreasing volume, signalling an imminent breakout in the days to come.
BTC/USD daily chart
BTC Market Cap Dominance
Bitcoin dominance is at a 2-yearly high, rising all the way to 72%.
However, according to recent research by Forbes, real BTC dominance is actually above 90%, making other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Ripple, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and others dominate at less than 10% combined.
Bitcoin hash rate is skyrocketing
Bitcoin hash rate increased 30% in September and 10% this week, meaning the BTC network is growing stronger.
Bitcoin hash rate
Millennials turn to BTC in recession.
According to an eToro survey, in the event of a recession, investors in the United States are considering converting some of their stock portfolios to safer options, among those suggested are real estate, crypto assets, and commodities.
The survey suggests that 43% of millennials would choose to invest in cryptocurrencies, while generation X mostly prefer real estate. Generation Z on the other hand, prefer hedging with commodities. Moreover, 71% of millennials would be interested in investing in crypto if it was offered by traditional financial institutions.
30 August 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD price falls, Bitcoin CME futures chart and BTC returns outperform top tech IPOs
BTC/USD daily chart
Bitcoin broke out of the horizontal triangle by dropping over 10% over the past three days. However, despite the significant decrease in price, it was not supported by a major volume. This gives a possibility that instead of a horizontal triangle with a bearish breakout, we are seeing a bullish falling pennant forming on a daily chart, which will play out in a longer-term. Currently, the BTC/USD price movement is still trapped between 50% and 38% Fibonacci levels.
On a CME Futures chart Bitcoin entered a downtrend and closed below daily EMA Ribbon for the first time in 6 months. There is also a major gap on the daily chart which is expected to be filled by BTC falling down to around $8500, also lining up with a 50% Fibonacci Retracement level.
Bitcoin CME Futures daily chart
BTC returns vs Top performing tech IPOs
Bitcoin return on investment outperformed all tech IPOs from 2010, as it grew from few cents to $10000. The results have been shared by Block Journal, that lists major tech stocks and it’s results after the initial public offering.
2010 to 2019— Crypto Godfather (@CryptoGodfatha) August 28, 2019
20 August 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD bear flag, Bakkt to launch in September and another ETF delay by SEC
After dropping by over 20%, BTC is now in the consolidation phase and is forming a bear flag on a 4-hourly time frame. If the price action will play out according to this pattern, the target to the downside is supposed to be around $8850. In case Bitcoin breaks out to the upside, it is going to be a third consecutive higher low, which would be a sign for trend reversal.
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Bakkt is cleared to launch
A year after the initial announcement, Bakkt is finally launching physically backed BTC futures. The custody and Bitcoin futures contracts launch date is set to be on the 23rd of September. They have received an approval from the CFTC and started user acceptance testing. This will create a liquidity channel into BTC from the major institutional investors.
We have some news https://t.co/ykUvQ31cGz— Bakkt (@Bakkt) August 16, 2019
SEC is delaying ETF again
SEC once again has postponed the decision regarding three ETF proposals to change the rules. This time, the new deadline is set for October, yet there still is doubt whether the ETF is going to happen at all. This time, the new deadline is set for October.
13 August 2019
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin bullish on the weekly chart, falling wedge formation and Chinese national digital currency soon to be released
Bitcoin broke out from the horizontal triangle, however, the decreasing volume indicates the major trend change hasn’t happened and a bigger formation is taking place. On the 4hourly chart, we see a falling wedge, which is still a bullish pattern. BTC remains above the daily EMA ribbon, which is currently serving as a support, indicating that there is less resistance to the upside than to the downside.
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Chinese National Digital Currency
Chinese Central Bank’s digital currency prototype based on blockchain technology is close to being released. The People’s Bank of China has been working for the past five years and now it is claimed to be ready. They are adopting a two-tier operating system to increase accessibility to their rather large population and drive public adoption rates. The official launch date is unknown at this moment.
Bitcoin bullish on a weekly time frame
Over the past week, Bitcoin has had the highest weekly close since the January 2018 peak. On August 5th, BTC closed at around $11550, which was above 50% Fibonacci Retracement Level. The weekly chart also appears to be forming a bullish flag, making the long-term view on Bitcoin increasingly optimistic.
BTC/USD weekly chart
9 August 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC horizontal triangles, BNB growth and Litecoin halving
BTC/USD chart is now forming a bullish flag, signalling a continuation of an uptrend on a 4-hourly time frame. To support the bullish pattern, we have also seen 50 and 200-days moving averages crossed and the price level currently stands above the EMA ribbon.
Moving sideways within a tightening range is going to end very soon as we break from the horizontal triangle.
BTC/USD 4hr chart
BNB growth despite KYC leak FUD
BNB increased 17% against Bitcoin in three days, despite the FUD circulating around a Binance KYC leak. Rumours spread by Telegram user “@kycisimportant,” claimed that Binance was allegedly hacked and personal documents of exchange users were leaked. This turned out to be old news, as the leaked documents were related to a hack that occurred back in 2018 when Binance was outsourcing KYC processes to a third party company.
Binance promptly warned users to not fall into a FUD trap and revealed that they have been threatened by an anonymous individual to pay 300 BTC to withhold KYC data. However, the incident did not scare off investors and BNB coin is currently one of the very few growing altcoins.
BNB/BTC daily chart
The second Litecoin halving took place on August the 5th, which against the expectations did not result in major positive price action. On the day of the event, the price increased 15%, breaking above the daily EMA ribbon, however, it closed the day at only 4% and corrected by 11% in the following days. Bullish market sentiment died off back in June and there was no major momentum building up before the halving.
LTC/USD daily chart
August 6, 2019
Key takeaways: 30% BTC pump and Chinese Yuan devaluation affect
As mentioned in our previous update, Bitcoin was due for a major breakout out of the tightening range, that resulted in a 20% pump to the upside since then and has now crossed the $12000 level.
The 4 hourly chart is now forming a bullish pennant, signalling the potential continuation of growth and the daily RSI shows there is still some room for growth before correction.
Bitcoin dominance is nearing 70%, as altcoins continue to fall behind.
BTC/USD daily chart
One of the most popular theories to what caused the Bitcoin rally is the devaluation of Chinese Yuan (by more than 2%). As the trade conflict between the United States and China continues to escalate, CNY fell to its lowest point of the past decade. Once again, in times of political and economic uncertainty, people resort to Bitcoin.
August 2, 2019
Key takeaways: BTC/USD bullish and bearish scenarios, 85% of Bitcoins has been mined and Satoshi symbol
On a Bitcoin CME Futures chart, the price has been stuck between 20 and 50 day EMA for the past two weeks on a daily time frame. It is currently testing the resistance level and if does manage to break above, it may increase to about $12000. However, in the bearish scenario, if it breaks below the $9500 level, it should fill the $9000-$8500 gaps and be supported by the 100 day EMA.
With a significantly decreasing volume and tightening range, an expected breakout is imminent.
Bitcoin CME Futures daily chart
85% of Bitcoin has been mined
Yesterday, 17,850,000 out of 21,000,000 bitcoins have been mined and are now in circulation. However, it will take a while for the remaining 3.15 million to be mined. Bitcoin‘s limited supply gives it value and scarcity, which prevents it from inflation.
Will Libra happen?
Despite the fact that Facebook is actively working on Libra project, it is still not certain if it will be launched at all, as they are facing many regulatory issues and challenges. Being subject of scrutiny from regulators and governments, Facebook has realised the risks and therefore provides a disclaimer at the end of their quarterly report that results may differ “due to a variety of factors and uncertainties” that are out of their control.
Facebook says “there can be no assurance that Libra or our associated products and services will be made available in a timely manner, or at all”.
D. Dickerson (@dickerson_des on Twitter) proposed to crowdsource a symbol for satoshi and it was supported by Square Crypto and crypto community with over hundreds of design ideas and sketches. The most popular, yet controversial suggestion was combining dollar sign $ and the @ symbol, as some don’t want it to be associated with a fiat currency. Which symbol the crypto community agree on - we shall find out.
July 16, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC downtrend, altcoin massacre and ETH below the 2 year low
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Bitcoin continues to slide down as it broke below a support line and EMA ribbon on a 4-hourly chart. This could be a sign that we are entering an even larger correction. The next support level to watch is at $9600, where the previous low was.
Altcoins keep dropping in price against the Bitcoin, as the top 10 (by market cap) coins are falling by up to 34% over the past seven days. Bitcoin dominance is standing strong and analysts predict a rise of up to 70-80%.
Ethereum has broke the key support level that it was able to hold all the way form December 2017. It is currently below the daily EMA ribbon and crossed the oversold territory on RSI. Now, a bullish crossover on the Stochastic RSI will be the signal that ETH is finally ready to grow.
ETH/BTC daily chart
Bears keep dominated the market for Litecoin too.The initial hype over the upcoming LTC halving has passed and it is now facing over 50% recession for the past month. It’s trading volume has also significantly decreased. There are less than 20 days until the halving, will this help to recover LTC?
LTC/BTC daily chart
July 12, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD bullish divergence, lower Bitcoin transaction fees and economic instability driving mass crypto adoption
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Bitcoin price fell 16% from the $13200 peak, which was once again at the 61.80% Fibonacci Retracement target. However, for now, it appears BTC bottomed at the trend line that once served as resistance and has now turned into support. What also calls for further growth is the RSI bullish divergence on the 1hr chart.
BTC/USD 1hr chart
Bitcoin Transaction Fees
Despite the recent fall in price, the fundamentals of Bitcoin keep getting stronger. If we compare the transaction fees of the bull market in 2017 to now, the fees have significantly reduced, while the number of transactions is almost the same. The main reason for this is the adoption and development of SegWit.
Zimbabwe is driving mass Bitcoin adoption
The major crisis in Zimbabwe is driving Bitcoin adoption, as the local government banned to use foreign currencies, including US dollars. The country is going back to Zimbabwe dollar, in the midst of huge economic uncertainty. The Zimbabwean nationals have an opportunity to obtain Bitcoin are gravitating towards cryptocurrency as a safer option, rather than what their government is able to offer.
July 9, 2019
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin breakout and a new high in market cap dominance
From the previous week, BTC/USD price established a descending resistance and higher lows for support, forming a horizontal triangle. After being squeezed into the tight range of Bollinger Bands in combination with a decreasing volume, the major breakout was expected. This resulted in a 16% growth in 3 days. The target, now at61.8% Fibonacci Retracement at $13500 price per Bitcoin. The move upward is not supported by a large volume as it was in the previous run-up.
The question is: Does BTC have enough momentum to keep growing?
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Bitcoin dominance reaches a new high as it heads to its next target. As mentioned previously, BTC market cap dominance broke above the resistance level at 65% which was tested three times before. It is currently growing rapidly, marked at 3% growth in 2 days. Ever since the Bitcoin rally began in April, it has been dominating the market, while the majority of altcoins are struggling to gain 2% dominance.
Market Cap Bitcoin Dominance
July 5, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC dominance, Bitcoin Futures from ErisX and Facebook’s Libra vs US lawmakers
BTC/USD daily chart
A significant spike happened again, reaching the $12000 mark, which occurred during the Asian morning trading session. BTC is now facing correction, supported by EMA ribbon. The market however, is cooling down and daily volume retreated back to $25 billion.
Bitcoin Dominance went up 5% this month and is now testing the resistance level at 65% for the third time. Bitcoin is thriving, while many altcoins are still over 80% down from their 2017 peak. So now, there is a big debate looming: will BTC break out to 70% or is it altcoins turn to shine?
Market Cap BTC Dominance
Futures in Bitcoin from ErisX
ErisX, an Americ crypto startup, (backed TD Ameritrade) has received a CFTC License which means they can now list BTC futures. After fighting with regulatory difficulties, they have managed to overtake Bakkt (backed by NYSE) to become the first to get approval to provide fully-collateralized virtual currency futures. This is exactly what institutional and traditional investors (who just wanted to get an exposure to the BTC price) were waiting for, as they were not willing to deal with crypto wallet creation and registering with crypto exchanges.
Our DCO license is the next step in ErisX’s evolution & mission to improve the digital asset space. We worked collaboratively w the CFTC to establish a clearinghouse guided by proven regulatory frameworks that protect participants and market integrity. https://hubs.ly/H0jB3CG0— ErisX_Digital (@ErisX_Digital) July 1, 2019
Facebook’s Libra vs US lawmakers
As expected, US lawmakers are now trying to stop further development of Facebook’s crypto project Libra. The was an official letter addressed to Mark Zuckerberg from four different lawmaking institutions where they request to “immediately agree to a moratorium on any movement forward on Libra”. The letter states because Libra could become a rival to the US dollar and it’s monetary policy, it imposes serious issues to national security, privacy and trading. This is an issue of Facebook/Libra being a centralized entity, as regulators cannot write a letter to Bitcoin and ask it to stop its activity.
UK First Crypto Hedge Fund approved
Prime Factor Capital became the first crypto hedge fund to have received approval from the UK regulator FCA. With this approval, the company is now able to hold over €100 million in crypto assets under management.
July 2, 2019
Key Takeaways: Bitsane exit-scam, Venezuela’s hyperinflation to drive BTC mass adoption and crypto market “in the red”
BTC/USD daily chart
After Bitcoin peaked at $13800 on June 26th, the price has entered a bearish trend with a 30% correction from the yearly high. The daily EMA Ribbon is currently holding the price, however, if BTC keeps heading down, the next target should be at around $9500 (61.8 Fibonacci Retracement level). Most of the crypto market is currently in the red, with the top 10 altcoins (by market cap) falling by up to 8%.
Bitsane exchange exit-scam
Another exchange went offline with an exit-scam, this time affecting 246,000 users. Irish crypto exchange Bitsane went offline on June 27th and has since deleted all its social media pages. One Bitsane user allegedly lost $150,000 from the company's disappearance. FBI is currently investigating multiple complaints filed from those affected.
Hyperinflation in Venezuela drives Bitcoin mass adoption
Hyperinflation in Venezuela is expected to reach 10 million percent by the end of this year. In this highly unstable economic and political situation, Venezualians have turned to Bitcoin, as a much safer option than their own currency. This can be a driving force for mass adoption and instead of buying BTC for investing and speculative purposes, nations could potentially accumulate Bitcoin out of necessity to save their wealth and avoid very fragile fiat currencies that can be affected by inflation.
New record for Bitcoin Hashrate
On June 29th, Bitcoin hashrate hit another all-time high, peaking at 69EH/s. It appears miners are not planning to slow down. German mining company Northern Bitcoin has invested in 5000 mining rigs as they aim to increase their operation capacity on their site in Norway.
June 28, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD correction, ETH/BTC TA and upcoming altcoins boom
Bitcoin above $10000
As suggested in the previous issue, Bitcoin was due for a correction and this is exactly what happened this week. After reaching the 61.8% target on the daily Fibonacci retracement, BTC experienced a 19% downturn.
On June 26th BTC rapidly gained 20% within a few hours. However, it closed far from the high, leaving a long wick. This gave traders another hint that bitcoin might be in overbought territory.
BTC/USD daily chart
If this week’s pattern was in fact a blow-off top for BTC, that could indicate that there is quite a high probability of an upcoming altcoin boom (which still has to be confirmed first).
On a daily chart against BTC, Ethereum currently has reached a major support level, where it bottomed out several timers before. To support that, ETH has also crossed the oversold territory on the daily RSI and deviated quite far from the EMA ribbon. Over the week, ETHBTC is down 13% .
ETH/BTC daily chart
After reaching an 18 month high of around $13.700, Bitcoin lost $1.700 within 15 minutes, as Coinbase , one of the major exchanges, went offline. The website and the mobile app were down for an hour displaying an error message and resulting in a panic sell. This is not the first time Coinbase experience technical issues during important Bitcoin price action.
June 24, 2019
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin reached $11200, all-time high hash rate and a brief look at some of the altcoins.
Bitcoin above $10000
Over the weekend BTC has broke through the resistance levels and psychological $10000 barrier and headed upwards reaching the $11200 price point. It has almost reached the target suggested by Fibonacci Retracement (50%) at around $11300.
BTC/USD daily chart
Despite the overall hugely bullish sentiment on the market, it is reasonable to expect an upcoming correction before the next spike. With that massive pump, Bitcoin dominance is going up as well (currently at 58%) and it is significantly outperforming altcoins.
Let’s have a look at how some of the altcoins are doing
- Ripple surged above the $0.5050 price level, but since experienced a 12% correction. It’s previous growth allows it to stay above the EMA ribbon.
- ETH had a nice rally along with BTC and is now at a $306 price point, with a daily volume of $2.05bn.
- Litecoin lost $10 over the past 2 days. However, analytics seem optimistic about the long term LTC price, predicting $200 by the end of the year.
BTC hash rate all-time high
Bitcoin blockchain security is getting stronger with a growing hash rate as more miners join the network. June 19th marks all-time high rate of 65.19 trillion hashes per second.
Bitcoin hash rate
June 19, 2019
The world's largest cryptocurrency made a new yearly high of $9,430 during Monday's trading session after testing $9300 on Sunday.
The recent move shows a staggering increase of 187% from the lows recorded in late 2018. The VPVR, an indicator that illustrates volume traded at price levels, shows that above $9,300 there is minimal price history, which was also found below $6,000 USD. As seen previously with the explosion above $6,000, order books that contain concentrated areas of low price action and liquidity often aid in fast moves as the market attempts to rationalize the relatively uncharted territory.
Currently, the bulls have control of the market. Monday’s price action has been the bulls pushing price back up to test the newly set yearly highs. With temporary support found at $9,000, the main task now is to harness enough momentum to break through the iconic $10,000 USD level.
Figure A - BTC Chart
The underlying force behind the price surge over the past few months is both retail and institutional interest is hitting levels not seen since the last major bull-run.
Market participation is an elemental factor that is highly associated with price action. So it is no surprise that the number of active Bitcoin wallet addresses surged past one million late last week. This is the first time this has happened since November 2017.
Additionally, the network hash rate reached an all-time high of 62 quintillion hashes per second on Friday, June 14th. This represents a near 60% increase since the yearly lows in December 2018.
Figure B - ETH/USD - BTC/USD
Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency by market cap. So it is no surprise to find that ETH/USD and BTC/USD are highly correlated with one another's price movement. But recently, Bitcoin has been unproportionally outperforming Ethereum, along with almost everything else in the crypto market.
By looking at Figure B, one can see that Bitcoin has cleared all resistance levels below $9,000 and is looking to use previous resistance as a new level of support.
Ethereum, on the other hand, has yet to clear the main level of resistance found at $285-$290 USD.
Using the 2017 bull-run as a reference, the two assets should start to converge on one another as the Bitcoin price finds an equilibrium of dominance in the crypto market.
Facebook’s Cryptocurrency Project - Libra
Over recent months, the cryptocurrency community has been speculative about Facebook’s cryptocurrency project, now named “Libra”. As many have predicted, Libra is a type of stablecoin, or a currency that does not experience significant volatility swings.
To achieve this stability, Libra’s value will be pegged to the underlying assets held in the Libra Reserve, which is described as a “collection of currencies and other assets used as collateral for every Libra that is created.”
As a currency, Libra is designed to allow anyone to easily transfer value to another Libra wallet holder. Wallets will be easily accessible to anyone with access to a mobile phone, as the mobile app will be available on the Google Play Store and IOS App Store. Additionally, both WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger will allow users to send money as easily as messages.
Libra being so easily accessible is a double-edged sword. Ease of use brings about KYC and AML aspects of the project. It is likely that Libra will enforce strict KYC requirements to ensure it complies with regulations in as many countries as possible.
Facebook is currently playing their cards close to the chest and not disclosing specifics on the exact launch date of the cryptocurrency, simply noting that it is “coming soon”.
June 14, 2019
Key Takeaways: New crypto regulations, green energy for BTC mining, ADA/BTC breakout and BTC/USD technical analysis
BTC/USD daily chart
On the 1D chart, bitcoin tested the short term upward trend support line four times, each time establishing higher lows. The EMA ribbon, although partly breached, helps to maintain this trend for now, displaying neutral to positive sentiment. However, BTC/USD monthly logarithmic charts are indicative of a possibility in sentiment shift, as we have now witnessed several consecutive green candles which historically (except for the 2017 bull run) calls for a correction.
BTC/USD monthly chart
New crypto regulations from FATF
An intergovernmental organization FATF (Financial Action Task Force on Money Laundering) has released new regulations concerning digital assets sector, including exchanges, crypto hedge funds and custodians. New rules will require exchanges to collect data on their customers for trades above $1000 and it is expected to be technically challenging and costly endeavour to implement those changes to comply with new regulations. Applying bank regulations on crypto space might be confronted with some resistance and challenges, due to the anonymous nature of wallet addresses on digital ledgers and decentralisation and privacy concerns of users.
BTC mining is greener than you thought
According to research study from CoinShares, about 74% of energy used for Bitcoin mining is coming from renewable energy sources, like solar and wind power. The research shows that in the long term it is actually more profitable to use renewable energy for miners and make a positive ROI with current prices.
Cardano price is rising in anticipation of the Shelley release.
The Shelley update showcases decentralization within the Cardano platform with 1000 staking pools that effectively delegate control over to the community members. Additionally, the Shelley release will include proof-of-stake consensus, incentive fees, multisig transactions, paper wallets, quantum resistance and more.
From a technical perspective, Cardano has an extremely bullish trading bias. The six-hour time frame is showing that price has cleared all resistance levels on the Ichimoku Cloud, while simultaneously invalidating the bearish head and shoulders pattern.
Strong resistance lies around 1200 sats, which at the moment serves as a price ceiling for the 11th largest cryptocurrency by market cap. Cardano is applying pressure towards key neckline resistance levels on both ADA/USD and ADA/BTC pairs.
Traders should expect a wave of buying interest if a breakout above 1200 stats and or $0.10 is to occur.
ADA/BTC 6hr chart
June 12, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC trades within tightening range, CCN.com shutting down, founder claims due to Google search algorithm and LTC pumps prior to halving
BTC/USD 4hr chart
BTC bounced off the support level at around $7500 for the third time over the past week, each time establishing slightly higher lows. As the price keeps moving sideways, the range between support and resistance is tightening down on a 4-hourly time frame. The volume is decreasing as well, indicating the upcoming major breakout.
The end of CCN.com
One of the major crypto news websites CCN.com, was forcibly closed down due to a significant loss of visibility caused by Google’s search algorithm update.
The crypto-related media outlet, created back in 2013 and was forced to stop its activity after losing 71% of their mobile traffic and 90% of their revenue. The founder of CCN, Jonas Borchgrevink, has published an article detailing the reason behind the closure of the website. It appears Coindesk.com also took a hit in the recent core update from Google.
LTC halving in 60 days
Litcoin has reached its highest this year, getting above the $130 price level with a 35% growth rate within the past week. The daily chart demonstrates how LTC is almost breaking a major resistance level. The main theory circulating within the crypto space is that the significant growth is connected to the upcoming halving, which is scheduled on August 6th. Like BTC, the Litecoin halving is set to happen every 4 years and this time the reward for miners will decrease from 25 LTC to 12.5 LTC .
LTC/USD daily chart
June 7, 2019
Key Takeaways: FB’s cryptocurrency announcement, Binance’s stablecoin coming soon, lawsuit against Kik and BTC/USD TA
BTC SME Futures 4hr chart
The BTC 4-hourly future chart suggests that the next bearish target would be at approximately $7150.
Gaps in price charts should be filled by the price moving back to the original pre-gap level. Yellow ellipses on the chart indicate examples of gaps being opened and closed. Red ellipses are depicting an unclosed gap calling for correction to fulfill the pattern.
BTC/USD daily chart
To support the this bearish trend,picture, on a daily BTC/USD chart, the RSI broke below the its major support level on the daily BTC/USD and keeps heading to the lower side. However, The EMA ribbon is still holding the price at $7600 level - further breach could solidify the negative price trend.
Facebook’s crypto project announcement
According to The Information report, Facebook will announce its cryptocurrency project by the end of June. Supposedly, they will incorporate the project into their platforms : (Facebook app, Messenger, Instagram and What’s App) for over 2 billion users to pay, send, trade and store. Moreover, they will offer an option for the employees involved in this project to get their salaries in this cryptocurrency.
Binance to issue its own stable coin soon
Wei Zhou, the CFO of Binance CFO, announced that they are planning to launch their own stable coin BGBP within two months. They are currently testing their new cryptocurrency backed by British pound on their own Binance Chain blockchain. And according to their CEO, “only £200 minted so far”.
SEC sues Kik for their 2017 ICO
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) sued Kik, a messaging app startup for conducting unregistered ICO worth of $100 million back in late 2017 worth of $100 million. The SEC claims that their KIN token was not, in fact, a utility, but a security token which was not compliant with securities regulations. This case may lead to other ICOs to get in trouble as well for misrepresenting the nature of their token sale.
June 4, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD TA, EOS announcement, Bitcoin Hodling season, Binance DEX decentralization question, LN support for Tether on Bitfinex
BTC/USD 4hr chart
Despite the recent fall back, the daily BTC chart is still in the clear up-trend, forming a rising wedge. Besides the support line, the important level to watch is at around $8100. As long as Bitcoin price can hold above it, the uptrend is safe.
Binance DEX excluding countries
A supposedly decentralized exchange from Binance DEX will block 29 countries, including users from the United States. The news raised even more skepticism, to how decentralized than it really is.
Lightning Network support for Tether
As a stablecoin, Tether is going to have a Lighting Network Support on Bitfinex exchange. Remember, Tether and Bitfinex have the same owners and managers. According to their CTO, Paolo Ardoino, they plan to launch this year want to contribute to the Lightning Network development.
Bitcoin hodling season
According to Chainalysis only 1.3% of all BTC transactions in 2019 are made as payments. The research shows that users tend to accumulate and hodl Bitcoin rather than spend it
EOS’s “buy the rumour, sell the news” case
After a highly anticipated announcement from EOS, the rumors about Block.one’s intentions to launch the blockchain-based social media platform were confirmed. EOS is now also listed on Coinbase, with which Blockone collaborated to bring EOS to Earn, a platform that allows users to make money by watching knowledgeal videos. Despite the big news, EOS price went 17% down, confirming the pattern “buy the rumor, sell the news”.
EOS/USD 4hr chart
May 31, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD charts, EOS announcement, Cardano’s Shelley testnet launch, IOTA’s Coordicide
BTC/USD 4hr chart
After a big pump all the way to $9100, BTC immediately retraced by 12%, breaking through the EMA ribbon on the 4-hourly chart, despite the bull flag formation and ignoring horizontal triangle target.
On a daily chart however, we are still in a clear bull run with RSI holding position above the trend line.
BTC/USD daily chart chart
EOS is hyping up a new announcement
Daniel Larimer, the CTO of EOS is promising the biggest announcement since the beginning of EOS coming on 1st of June.The community has been widely speculating about what is it going to be, from assumptions about EOS cooperating with Apple to an alternative social media platform creation. Leading to this major reveal, the hype resulted in almost 50% price growth in a week.
EOS/USD daily chart chart
Cardano’s (ADA) Shelley Testnet Launch
Another major news piece for the upcoming months is Cardano’s testnet launch for the much anticipated Shelley update that they plan to launch in June. The most important part of the update is going to be a Proof-of-Stake consensus mechanism.
IOTA solved the blockchain trilema?
IOTA has revealed their new project called Coordicide, which will be a substitution to Coordinator. Coordinator was a temporary component with the purpose of securing IOTA’s distributed ledger and protocol Tangle. It was also a blocker for a decentralisation aspect of their DLT. If Coordicide actually works, what IOTA is presenting solves the blockchain trilema (security, scalability and decentralization). Obviously the concept needs to be proven first, so it will run on a public testnet subject to public scrutiny.
May 24, 2019
Key Takeaways: BTC/USD TA, Craig Wright’s claim on Bitcoin, ETF delay and BTC upcoming halving.
BTC/USD hourly chart
On the hourly chart, BTC has formed a small horizontal wedge within a larger triangle. The wedge did not hold, price tested the overlapping triangle. After quite some swings this month the price volatility has slowed down, accompanied by a decreasing volume. Reminding you, that horizontal triangles are neutral and the upcoming major breakout can lead to any direction.
BTC dominance is still quite high, marking 57% as of today.
Crypto is back on mainstream
- CBS’s 60 minutes segment on Bitcoin that was generally accepted well by the crypto community as it had no FUD content for a change.
- Anthony Pompliano on CNBC discussed the latest bull run of the crypto market, which he explained by institutions and retail investors money.
- Bitcoin gains popularity on Google search again, beating Donald Trump, Beyonce and Kim Kardashian.
Bitcoin halving approaching in a year
The next Bitcoin halving will happen on approximately May 22, 2020, and will cut mining reward from 12.5 to 6.25 BTC per block. BTC surged 10x after the 2016 halving event. Will we see something similar in a year? You can find Bitcoin block reward halving countdown here.
Craig Wright claimed Bitcoin White Paper
BSV surged over 100% within 2 hours after Craig Wright was awarded with copyright claim on the Bitcoin White Paper and the original Bitcoin code. It is important to note that The U.S. Copyright Office doesn’t investigate the validity of the claim and “whether there is a provable connection between the claimant and the pseudonymous author”, so technically anyone could register the copyright on the original author of the white paper as “multiple adverse claims” are also possible.
BSV daily chart
ETF delayed again
Once again the VanEck ETF decision was postponed by SEC due to a new rule change.
The new date is set to be on August 19, 2019, approve, reject or delay the decision once again.
May 20, 2019
Key Takeaways: Corporations on crypto, Microsoft ID tool on Bitcoin blockchain, BAKT Bitcoin Futures date and as usual good old BTC/USD TA.
After significant growth over the past few weeks, BTC experienced a flash crash with almost 22% in less than 2 hours.
This time, Bitcoin tested the previous high (July 2018) on the monthly time frame at around $8400-8500 but was not able to break into a monthly bull run.
It seems like BTC needs this correction to regain the momentum needed to break through the important level to the upside. On a daily chart, BTC still hasn't fully crossed the EMA ribbon.
BTC/USD daily chart
Microsoft to build ID tool on Bitcoin blockchain
Microsoft has announced that they are launching Ion, a decentralised identity tool based on Bitcoin blockchain.
This is an open source project that allows users to log in using decentralized identifiers, instead of using for example, Facebook profile data to register or access external service providers. Obviously, it is major news for the crypto space when a tech giant like Microsoft is developing a product based on Bitcoin blockchain, as it is legitimate bitcoin in the eyes of the mainstream.
Ebay to accept crypto?
Unconfirmed speculation that eBay is going to accept crypto payments stirred up a lot of buzz based on photos made on this year’s Consensus event, a major annual gathering of the blockchain and crypto space.
The photos suggests that eBay is now going to accept virtual currencies and that has sparked heated discussions, as they have 179 million active buyers on their website. However, later last week eBay spokesperson denied the rumours and stated that it is not a part of their payment strategy.
Bakkt sets date to test Bitcoin Futures
Kelly Loeffler, the CEO of Bakkt has updated the status of preparation for the Bitcoin Futures and custody launch. They are planning to conduct user acceptance testing in July and let users to “test trading and custody model”. However, there is still no launch date announced, which has been delayed a lot in the past.
May 13, 2019
Bitcoin goes parabolic - what's next for the king of crypto?
BTC/USD price rose to $7,580 over the weekend. This is a new 2019 high and the highest level since early September 2018.
While the price has consolidated back to $7000 at the time of press, the long-term trend remains strongly bullish as the price is trading above both the Tenkan-Sen(Conversion line in blue), Kijun-Sen(Base-line in red), and the Kumo Cloud(coloured green).
Bitcoin has experienced a parabolic rise in price over the past 10 days, culminating in 30% gains. Although the sentiment is overwhelmingly bullish, traders should pay attention to some bearish signs – like RSI becoming extended in overbought territory.
Daily BTC/USD RSI Chart
On the daily chart, Bitcoin has substantial support at $5800-$6000, which is where the mean line is found on the daily Bollinger Bands. A retest of this level is likely as BTC/USD will retrace before more upside is seen.
Looking at the chart, the Bitcoin price is clearly in a strong uptrend above the $6,700 local support area. Price is subject to a few swings moves in the interim, but Bitcoin is likely to climb above $7300 once again within the coming weeks.
BTC/USD 1D Bollinger Bands
It has become standard for Binance to dominate crypto headlines, and today was no exception. Binance experienced a hack in the late afternoon of May 7th, where funds were stolen totalled 7,074 BTC, or roughly 40.6 million USD. This is the first successful hack on the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange in its near two-year long existence.
The official statement released by Binance co-founder and chief executive Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao claimed that “one transaction” was all that was used to withdraw 7,074 BTC.
In addition to large amounts of cryptocurrency, hackers were also able to obtain large quantities of user information including API keys and two-factor authentication codes. The method used to compromise users accounts was a combination of phishing and viruses.
To mend the situation, Binance will use its Secure Asset Fund for Users to cover all losses. The Secure Asset Fund for Users, or SAFU, is a BNB-denominated fund that holds 10 per cent of all trading fees absorbed by the exchange.
On May 8th, one day after the initial hack, 99.97% of the stolen Bitcoin were distributed to seven different addresses. Six of the addresses received 1060.6 BTC while one address received 707.1 BTC.
The alleged addresses containing the stolen BTC are as follows:
bc1q3a5hd36jrqeseqa27nm40srkgxy8lk0v0tpjtp (Bech32 address holding 707.1 BTC)
bc1q2rdpyt8ed9pm56u9t0zjf94zrdu6gufa47pf62 (Bech32 address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
bc1qx3628eh9tdnm0uzculu8k6r2ywfkc5zns2hp0k (Bech32 address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
bc1qnf2ja3ffqzc3hskanjse6p8zag52fm6jgmmg9u (Bech32 address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
bc1qw7g5uxxl750t0h2fh9xajwuxp4qt634yh3vg5q (Bech32 address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
16SMGihY94H8UjRcxwsLnDtxRt7cRLkvoC (P2PKH address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
1MNwMURYw1LkPnnpda2DQkkUsXXeKL9pmR (P2PKH address holding 1,060.6 BTC)
Controversy emerged amongst the crypto community over the best course of action in recovering losses and establishing economic ownership over the lost funds. A proposal emerged to perform a rollback on the Bitcoin network to recover the funds lost during the hack. The proposal entailed revealing the private keys of the compromised accounts and assigning rewards to miners to unwind the hack. Although this is theoretically possible to perform, it was concluded that a rollback on the Bitcoin network of this scale would have catastrophic implications to Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem at large.
The most significant implication being that a rollback would compromise Bitcoin’s core value proposition; being immutable. Even a friendly re-organization of the Bitcoin network that targeted the stolen funds would set a terrible precedent and destroy the perception of Bitcoin serving as a prudent, immutable store of value.
BTC Market Dominance
Bitcoin’s market dominance is a metric that tracks the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization of BTC relative to other digital assets in the market.
Bitcoin’s dominance has hit an 8-month high of 57%, suggesting that investor confidence is remaining bullish even as prices attempt to close above the iconic $6,000 USD level. This rise in market dominance means that the demand for Bitcoin is greater than the demand for other cryptocurrencies, or altcoins. While it is typical for investors to buy Bitcoin to fund altcoin purchases, that has not been the case as of late as altcoin prices have declined while investors purchase BTC for the long term.
May 6, 2019
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin breakout analysis, institutional interest survey and market cycle lifespans.
Over the past week, BTC/USD tested both support and resistance levels.
Following the breakout above the crucial $5500 resistance level in the early trading session of Friday, May 3rd, Bitcoin reached its new 2019 high of $5843. This price spike bolsters both short and long-term bullish views for Bitcoin, assuming the price holds strong above $5000. For the forecast to remain bullish, Bitcoin must turn the previous resistance level of $5500 into support. A clean retest of this support level followed by buyers coming into the market will aid in more fresh gains.
BTC/USD 4 hour chart
At the time of press, Bitcoin is trading at $5622 while most alt coins are succumbing to sell pressure. Bitcoin market dominance has increased by over 2% in the past week alone, indicating that traders and investors alike are not feeling prone to take on excessive risk.
Cycle Analysis from one of the Greats
In a tweet posted Thursday, Peter Brandt, a legendary commodity trader with decades of trading experience revealed his analysis depicting that Factor’s benchmark moving average for Bitcoin on the weekly chart has pivoted. The significance of this metric is such that the last time this was seen was when BTC moved from $340 to $20,000.
Although the Factor’s moving average has reversed, Brandt insists to note that Bitcoin is susceptible to one more significant pullback before pressing farther to the upside. Most likely in an attempt to weed out retail investors and panic sellers in the market.
While moving averages are great for filtering out noise and determining trend, it would be shortsighted to not implement another, more multifaceted indicator into the analysis process.
On-Balance Volume (OBV) is a technical trading signal that weighs both volume and price action to determine the level of trend momentum. OBV has made higher lows and continually trended higher since late-January, which confirms that Bitcoin may very well have found its bottom.
Will institutions fuel the next crypto bull run?
Many investors have long been watching the digital asset market to see how large investment groups will get involved. Speculators say that it will be these institutional investors that ultimately drive the next crypto bull market. A study conducted by Fidelity Investments eludes to further optimism among institutions.
Fidelity investments recently conducted a survey which polled 441 institutional investors, including family offices, hedge funds, foundations and endowments. The survey was conducted with the aim of obtaining information about institutional interest in the digital asset market.
The key takeaway from the survey was that roughly half of the institutions surveyed disclosed that they consider digital assets worthy of holding a place in their investment portfolios. This figure is overwhelmingly bullish as it eludes that widespread institutional adoption is imminent. Bitcoin and the greater crypto market embarking on another parabolic bull run is not unrealistic but moving the market to new all-time highs will require significant amounts of money, even more so than in years past.
April 29, 2019
Key Takeaways: Weekly TA for BTC/USD, the rise of BAT, Bitfinex & Tether scandal and Samsung’s crypto investment
Over the past week, BTC/USD price continued to bounce in-between support and resistance lines that formed an upward channel.
We have seen Bitcoin price rejected by a major resistance level at around $5500. Looking at the RSI on the daily chart, BTC is still holding above the level, which has served as support since the end of last year.
Although we have seen a Golden Cross on a daily chart (50-day Moving Average has crossed 200-day Moving Average), which was supposed to be a strong bullish signal, at the same time we have also seen a bearish divergence on RSI that resulted in a 10% price drop.
This occurrence is very similar to the 2014/2015 bear market. It appears Bitcoin is very closely repeating the pattern now.
In the previous bear market, the First Golden Cross was ignored, to which BTC experienced a correction. The Second Golden Cross started a bull run, which arguably could occur this time again.
BTC/USD daily chart
Currently, Bitcoin holds dominance over altcoins and went above 54%, as the majority of altcoins have experienced a correction.
One coin that has been doing really well, however, is BAT (Basic Attention Token) which showed an impressive 100% growth-rate in April.
Basic Attention Token
They have announced the launch of the Brave Ads function which allows users to receive rewards (BAT tokens) for watching adverts inside the browser.
BAT/USD daily chart
Samsung invests millions in Ledger
Samsung has invested $2.9 million in Ledger, a recognised startup that produces hardware wallets.
Samsung has been showing a lot of interest into crypto/blockchain space recently. The tech giant announced their latest smartphone Galaxy S10 will have a built-in crypto wallet. The market expects that they might even issue their own token in the future, but the rumours have not been officially confirmed by Samsung.
Tether and Bitfinex shady business
iFinex is a company that stands behind both Bitfinex and Tether and was founded in 2012 in Hong Kong. The Attorney General’s office has found out that Bitfinex allegedly used Tether reserve to hide $850 million loss. This resulted in massive amounts of USDT being moved from Bitfinex to other exchanges and wallets.
A month earlier, Tether changed the core principle behind the stable coin, where previously they claimed that every Tether is backed by a traditional currency they hold in reserve.
They currently give a very general statement that, “every tether is always 100% backed by our reserves, which include traditional currency and cash equivalents and, from time to time, may include other assets and receivables from loans made by Tether to third parties, which may include affiliated entities (collectively, “reserves”)”.
Bitfinex has used at least $700 million from tether reserves to help cover its losses, turning #tether reserves into 'slush fund' for Bitfinex ops, NY AG says. #cryptohttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bitfinex-used-tether-reserves-to-mask-missing-850-million-probe-finds-11556227031— Paul Vigna (@paulvigna) April 25, 2019
April 15, 2019
Key Takeaways from Market Watch
Current BTC chart explained, new coins added on Coinbase Pro, Facebook’s potential stablecoin in the pipeline and Ripple’s partnership with Tata CS.
Last week, the bearish divergence on a Relative Strength Index was confirmed, and BTC price broke through the supporting EMA ribbon on a 4-hourly chart with a 10% correction.
BTC/USD 4hr chart
It's a critical time regarding BTC price – should bears break below the uptrend line on the daily RSI, it could mean that Bitcoin will slide into a more significant correction on a daily time frame. To support this, we’ve also seen a bearish cross on the Stochastic RSI, giving us another bearish signal.
BTC/USD daily chart
EOS, MKR, REP on Coinbase Pro
Coinbase Pro announced the addition of 3 new tokens: EOS, Maker and Augur were added to the exchange. Here’s a brief overview of coins that are now available to trade on Coinbase Pro:
- EOS is a native cryptocurrency to EOS.IO, a blockchain protocol that operates as a decentralised operating system and smart contract platform. It has over $5 billion in market cap and is currently #5 on CoinMarketCap
- Maker MKR is a decentralised stable coin created on the Ethereum platform. The idea behind Maker Dao project is “to create a line of decentralised digital assets that would be tied to the value of real instruments such as currency, gold, etc.”
- REP is an Ethereum token created to be used on the Augur, a platform for predicting and reporting events, weather, markets and companies forecasting.
Facebook is allegedly raising one billion dollars in venture capital for its new crypto project. Although not officially confirmed, Facebook is reportedly working on creating a cryptocurrency that will be designed like a stable coin for WhatsApp and backed by fiat currencies.
Facebook has been heavily criticised for its poor handling of user’s data and privacy, which they intend to solve with blockchain technology. They have hired 30 DLT professionals for their blockchain department lead by David Mark (ex-Paypal president).
Update on Facebook's cryptocurrency: Sources tell me that Facebook is now looking to get VC firms to invest in the Facebook cryptocurrency project we reported on earlier this year. I hear they are targeting big sums -- as much as $1b.— Nathaniel Popper (@nathanielpopper) April 8, 2019
Ripple partnership with TCS
Ripple partners with the largest Indian IT company Tata Consultancy Services. Last year, they generated $19 billion in revenue.
With the integration of RippleNet into TCS’s operation, they will be able to facilitate transparent, fast and efficient cross border payments with their service solution, Quartz, which is based on Ripple blockchain. This means Tata Consultancy Services will now work closely with Ripple and all the clients of the company, such as Microsoft, GE and Citibank.
April 8, 2019
What an exciting week!
As you may be aware by now, this week, the price of Bitcoin surged over 30%. As Bitcoin broke the $4200 mark and major $4660 resistance level, a significant amount of short positions were closed that stimulated further growth.
Looking at the Fibonacci Retracement levels, the price was rejected twice at the 100% level and theoretically, the next target would be at around $5800. With that being said, both RSI and Stochastic RSI has reached “overbought territory”.
BTC/USD daily chart
There hasn’t been a bigger green daily candle since December 2017 and some speculate it is at the beginning of a bull run.
But is it?
One of the explanations suggests the reason for the large price pump was caused by algorithmic trading of $100 million worth of BTC orders synchronised across 3 major exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken and Bitstamp). Judging by the time of the rapid price growth, it is reasonable to assume that the pump originated from Asia, as it occurred at 4:30 UTC.
According to Crypto Fund Research, algorithmic trading in crypto is on the rise, with 17 algo or quantitative funds started since September. Some crypto funds that use automated software managed to gain up to 10% profit per month throughout 2018, while the majority were losing money in the bear market.
The big spike in price also triggered interest from the general public and made Bitcoin climb up to the 7th place on US Google search engine.
BTC 24h volume
It is important to note that the 24h volume on Coinmarketcap.com has reached an all-time high, exceeding the volume back in January 2017 (over $23 billion).
BTC/USD log 2014-2019
By looking at the logarithmic chart, we are still closely following the pattern of the previous 2014-2015 bear market, where, after the “final shakeout”, BTC price moved sideways where it broke through the 200-day moving average for the first time before retracing back down and eventually starting a bull run.
The 2014-2015 bear market is being often referred to due to its undeniable similarity to the pattern we are seeing now.
SEC regulatory framework
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has published a new regulatory guideline for token issuers. It focuses on how and when cryptocurrencies should be classified as security and outlines a number of factors that need to be considered, including:
- The expectation of profit
- A single or group of entities that are responsible for certain tasks within the network
- Whether a group is creating or supporting the market for a digital asset
An even bigger takeaway here is the fact that we are getting some regulatory clarity with regards to cryptocurrencies, which is very good news for the crypto space.
A lack of regulatory clarity has been a big show-stopper for a lot of institutional organisations. Many of the organisations do not want to be liable for any potential legal hurdles that may arise if the SEC or CFTC comes up with harsh regulations on crypto.
Even though the regulation is only an interim framework, it has huge implications for the fundamentals.
April 1, 2019
Looking at the 4 hour BTC chart, we can see that BTC has quietly broken above the key resistance level of $4000 USD. The infamous $4000 level has been a rock solid resistance area for all of 2019. Therefore, BTC closing above that level for multiple days in a row is very significant. Unfortunately, the price hike above $4000 has been done with light volume, indicating that market participants are still hesitant to jump into the market just yet. This can be explained by the fact that additional resistance still remains just above where price currently resides. If price is to continue to press higher, the BTC must close above $4300 with much more significant volume.
Looking at price action for the month of March, we can see that price has been finding support on the 200 period moving average (green line on the chart). At the time of press, the 200 MA depicts support being found around the $3900 USD level.
Major resistance has been surpassed, but additional resistance remains overhead. A failure to surpass the remaining overhead resistance found at $4300 would greatly increase the likelihood that BTC will continue to chop sideways in the near future.
Binance Coin (BNB) Price Continues to Press Higher Following Launchpad Update
Binance’s BNB token has been hands down the best performing top 20 market cap cryptocurrency of 2019. In fact, since the start of the new year, the price of Binance Coin against Bitcoin has risen over 175% and over 200% against the US dollar.
So what has lead to such outstanding performance?
At the start of each quarter, BNB undergoes a coin burn eliminating a portion of the circulating supply. Not only are the tokens destroyed, decreasing the supply, but they are acquired or bought back by the exchange itself. The process of burning tokens provides a catalyst for price surges - as supply decreases, demand increases.
Another driver for Binance Coin’s outstanding performance is the creation of its own blockchain, Binance Chain. Originally Binance Coin was built onto the Ethereum blockchain, making it an ERC20 token, but this is likely to change in the near future. Changpeng “CZ” Zhao, the CEO of Binance, announced that BNB will swap from the Ethereum blockchain and move to their main net after the DEX launches in 2019. This initiative will allow projects to fundraise and launch their own tokens upon its mainnet. The fundraising will be done by using BNB as the base currency, fostering a further use case for the token.
Complimenting Binance Chain is Binance DEX. Binance DEX is a decentralized exchange that is built on top of Binance Chain. The Binance DEX interface resembles a strikingly similar interface to that of the original Binance exchange. Although the exchanges resemble one another, there are various differences between the two. Binance DEX will, as the name eludes, be a decentralized exchange. This means that there will be a higher level of security associated with funds, as well as the users personal ownership of private keys.
Binance Launchpad is a fundraising platform upon which tokens can be launched. This concept is very similar to the Ethereum platform fundraising ICOs. The Launchpad holds one token sale per month, and the plan is to continue to list one every month in 2019. On March 24th, CZ made an announcement of the exchanges update to the Launchpad token sale format, causing the price of BNB to instantly surge 15%. The most notable aspect of the update is the so called ‘lottery system’, which will replace the method in which tokens are distributed during token sales. Further, users interested in participating in the token sale must hold BNB in their wallets for at least 20 days prior to the token sale. Tickets will be distributed to participants in proportion to the users BNB balance. Each ticket entitles the user to purchase $500 of whatever new token is on sale through the Launchpad. Nevertheless, participants will need to have at least 100 BNB in their balance. At the coin’s current price, this will cost around $1,700.
Binance’s consistent innovation in the crypto ecosystem, alongside its implementation of its native cryptocurrency, makes its is no surprise that BNB is outperforming the rest of the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin Difficulty Reaches 3-Month High - How will Price React?
In the past two weeks, the difficulty of the Bitcoin network has increased by over 6%. This puts it at a three-month high after climbing 25% since late December. Could this be a catalyst for a monumental price move to come?
In the past, there has been a linear relationship established between the price of Bitcoin and its network difficulty.
Network difficulty is a measure of how hard it is to mine a Bitcoin block. Mining involves guessing a random number, the nonce, to obtain a block hash of specified format. This becomes a determining factor of whether Bitcoin mining is a profitable activity or not.
Difficulty and hashrate positively correlate with one another, so falling Bitcoin price makes it less profitable to mine - which, in turn, reduces the difficulty.
So as difficulty rises, shouldn't price?
In theory, the price should increase as difficulty increases, but often times there is a delay between difficulty rising and bitcoin value rising. One should note that although the two are correlated, the relationship is not a universal indication of impending bullish momentum. Last year the Bitcoin difficulty increased to it's all-time high of nearly 7.5 trillion during the period where Bitcoin lost close to 85% of its value.
A second metric that shadows Bitcoin prices and network difficulty is the networks global hashrate. The network hashrate is a measurement of the speed at which each hash from the Bitcoin code is solved by the miners in the Bitcoin network. This figure is indicative of the total computing power dedicated to securing the Bitcoin blockchain. From January to March 2019, the average daily hashrate increased from 4.0 exahashes to 4.7 exahashes per second, representing over a 16% growth rate in just two months.
The Bitcoin protocol attempts to keep new block discovery constant at 10 minutes per block. This means that the difficulty of discovering new blocks must automatically adjust to ensure that the discovery time is maintained. The calibration can be done by increasing the difficulty when the hashrate climbs or decreasing the difficulty when the hashrate declines. This calibration process is most commonly known as difficulty re-targeting.
Typically, overall hashrate increasing dramatically is a result of either increased profitability in mining Bitcoin due to an increase in price, or the result of more efficient mining hardware being deployed online for the first time.
March 25, 2019
At the moment, Bitcoin is still trading inside of its range, which at the time of writing is $3,969. Falling short of closing above the $4,000 USD resistance level on the daily chart earlier last week, the bears made their presence known in the market. Contrary to typical weekend volatility increases in the crypto market, Bitcoin experienced almost zero price movement over the last 36 hours - leading analysts to speculate on a big move coming soon. Sentiment in the market remains positive, but another failed attempt to break the psychological resistance in the near future could reignite bearish momentum and attract selling pressure, ultimately pushing price down to local lows.
In reference to last week’s market watch, the bullish case for bitcoin might very well be still valid.
The 50-day moving average colored red crossing over the 100-day moving average colored in blue coupled with Bitcoin inching higher into the Ichimoku cloud (in the cloud, boundaries signify levels of support and resistance) indicates that buyers are present in the market. These technical indicators hint at significant support to be found between $3,600 USD and $3,700 USD. Additionally, a kumo-twist (highlighted green on the chart) has occured on the daily time frame, which indicates a trend reversal. The last time a bullish kumo-twist occured on the daily chart was on November 15th of 2016, when Bitcoin was trading at a price of $610.
Click here to learn more about the Ichimoku Cloud.
Two steps closer to mass adoption
Switzerland's largest online retailer now accepting Bitcoin as a method of payment
Digitec Galaxus, coined as the ‘Amazon’ of Switzerland, is now accepting Bitcoin and multiple other cryptocurrencies as payment. The new payment option was developed in part with Swiss e-payment specialist Datatrans AG and Coinify. The initiative was spearheaded by the CIO and co-founder of Digitec Galaxus who says "cryptocurrencies are fascinating and likely to become relevant in e-commerce - we want to support this development.”
While many have doubted cryptocurrency being a valid method of payment due to high levels of volatility, Digitec Galaxus remedies the ongoing price fluctuations by immediately converting crypto payments to Swiss Francs. Initially the new payment option will only be available to swiss customers. If the initiative proves to be successful, the company will eventually extend the option to german customers as well.
Fortune 500 giant Avnet now accepting Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash as a method of payment
Avnet, one of the worlds largest distributors of electronic components and embedded solutions, is now accepting both Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) as methods of payment. With revenues of about $20 billion per year, Avnet ranks in at number 128 on the Fortune 500 list, making the announcement to accept cryptocurrency as payment monumental. The electronics giant explained that it wants to provide its customers with more convenient ways to complete their financial transactions so they can focus on developing their products - not on how to pay for them.
Avnet also revealed that is has already received several multi-million dollar cryptocurrency transactions within the first month of accepting crypto payments. Avnet’s move to accept cryptocurrency is part of its larger mission to revolutionize the crypto landscape and strategically position the company to thrive in the next generation of financial payment processes.
CoinMarketCap Crypto Indices Launch on Nasdaq, Bloomberg, Reuters
@CoinMarketCap launches 2 #cryptocurrency #indices today on NASDAQ GIDS, Bloomberg, TR Refinitiv and Börse Stuttgart. It covers Top 200 crypto and is the most comprehensive #index to date. We're excited to bring crypto data to the wider financial market!https://blog.coinmarketcap.com/2019/03/20/coinmarketcap-cryptocurrency-benchmark-indices-to-launch-on-nasdaq-bloomberg-and-thomson-reuters-today/— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) March 20, 2019
CoinMarketCap, the cryptocurrency industry's leading provider of price and market capitalization data announced the launch of two inclusive indices on financial data feeds from Nasdaq Global index Service(GIDS), Bloomberg Terminal, Thomson Reuters Eikon(Refinitiv) and Germany’s Börse Stuttgart.
CoinMarketCap announced on wednesday that the benchmark indices
will be the most comprehensive crypto index to date. Brendan Chez, the CEO of CoinMarketCap, stated: “These indices will promote greater accessibility to cryptocurrency data in an easier-to-digest format.”
For Bloomberg Terminals, the headline index called CMC Crypto 200 Index [CMC 200] will include Bitcoin along with the following 199 top cryptocurrencies by market cap. The other headline index, called CMC 200 EX, was created to track the overall market performance, in the absence of Bitcoin. At the time of press, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance comprises roughly 50% of the total Crypto Market.
March 18, 2019
Bitcoin golden cross confirmed on a daily chart as the shorter term (50 days) moving average line crossed above the longer term one (100 days). This is considered to be a strong bullish signal. Still, it is important to note that this time it was not supported by high volume and the more significant golden cross would be if the 50-day MA crosses over 200-day MA. At this point, it is very far from happening.
The 4-hour BTC/USD chart for the past week clearly shows an example of how the EMA ribbon starts to lose its significance when the market is moving sideways. The EMA ribbon needs an established trend to be useful support or resistance level indicator.
Is 2019 the year of altcoins?
This year kicked off with altcoins thriving while bitcoin holds still. Here’s a roundup of what has taken place so far this year:
- The biggest (inorganic) growth of Enjin Coin. The coin reached over 560% against BTC within less than a month. Half of its growth took place based on the unconfirmed rumour about partnering with Samsung on the latest Galaxy S10 model before it rallied again when it was confirmed.
- Binance Coin surged 150% against Bitcoin, making it one of the top performing altcoins of 2019.
- Litecoin shows a 100% growth against USD and is about to complete a 50-day and 200-day moving average golden cross as well. Moreover, it is now forming an ascending triangle which is, of course, another bullish pattern.
- Tron went on 87% of growth before going on a 30% correction.
- EOS/USD reached a 75% growth rate in the last three months.
Bundestag hearing on DLT for financial services
Last week, the German federal parliament (Bundestag) hearing on the progress of creating a legal framework for distributed ledger technology for financial services took place.
So far, the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) and the Federal Ministry of Finance have yet to establish necessary legal regulations that are required to unleash the full potential of blockchain technology. Here are the reasons and concerns that were mentioned by participants in the hearing:
- Despite rapid technological development, there is a lack of research funding and expertise in the industry.
- Some question whether there is a need to create new laws concerning blockchain technology in the first place.
- High tension between the GDPR and blockchain technology.
- The negative public perception towards blockchain technology, associating it with money laundering activities.
ETH: not a security?
Throughout the past week, most of the major crypto news outlets claimed that Jay Clayton, the chairman of SEC confirmed that Etherium is not a security under U.S. law.
But what is actually the case?
First, in the original signed statement, Clayton claims, “A digital asset may be offered and sold initially as a security because it meets the definition of an investment contract, but that designation may change over time if the digital asset later is offered and sold in such a way that it will no longer meet that definition.” This statement is hardly a confirmation, but rather an expressed opinion about the potential possibility for tokens to lose it’s security status if the requirements are met.
Second, in this letter, Clayton actually does not specify Ethereum at all but speaks about tokens in general. Despite that fact, this whole ordeal is still considered to be a piece of bullish news, because this means that many ICOs that may have been securities would actually lose that status and therefore would not have to comply with securities regulation.
Did you know?
In order to prevent mistyping and sending funds to the wrong address, Bitcoin wallet addresses don’t contain the following characters: "0", "O", "l", or "I". This takes place thanks to an encoding scheme called Base58Check that removes those alphanumeric characters from generated Bitcoin addresses.
March 11, 2019
Last week BTC crossed the daily EMA ribbon twice. First, it went downside, but then bulls quickly took over and brought it back up the following day. For the third time, the price got rejected at the resistance level at around $3,870 and it seems like bitcoin does not have enough power to break through it yet.
In addition, we are approaching a bearish cross on the weekly Stochastic RSI, which historically indicates a major correction.
Binance Coin sees over 30% growth
With a 36% growth, BNB was the best performing coin last week. The coin has been performing really well since the end of 2018, despite the bear market. Binance coin jumped from 10th to 7th place on CoinMarketCap list and currently has a little over $2 million in market capitalization. One of the reasons that contributed to such a progressive growth is the recently launched decentralized Binance exchange testnet. Another reason is the Binance Launchpad, a token launch platform, that gained a lot of attention for listing hot ICOs like BitTorrent and Celer. Binance burns their coins quarterly and the last burn that took place at the beginning of this year was worth $9.4 million.
Sending Bitcoin over radio waves
The international Bitcoin lightning payment which was previously only sent via the internet is now possible to make using ham radio as well. Not only is this a very new method of bitcoin transaction but also, in certain cases, a useful one as it allows users to send bitcoin without internet access. That particular Lightning Network invoice transmission demonstrates that there is an alternative to internet transaction, which can be a subject of censorship (ie. China) or tight restriction (ie. North Korea).
Coinbase and Neutrino situation
Coinbase received a lot of criticism lately for acquiring Neutrino, the surveillance company known for selling users data to governments. Despite major concerns and discontent from users and the crypto community (check out #DeleteCoinbase on Twitter), Coinbase did not address the issue properly at first. However, as protestation grew, Brian Armstrong Coinbase CEO was forced to react and published a blog post explaining how they “had a gap in diligence process” and claiming that employees who previously worked in the controversial software firm Hacking Team will transition out of their new roles at Coinbase.
Bitcoin demand grows in Venezuela
The demand for Bitcoin in Venezuela has reached an all-time high of Bs. 25,16 billion, equivalent to $63 million, last week. Quick reminder: The Venezuelan bolívar has been the main currency in Venezuela since August 20, 2018. The currency was introduced as a solution to their previous currency hyperinflation problem, but failed to gain the trust of Venezuelans in the highly unstable situation in the country. Bitcoin became a safe haven for countries like Venezuela or Argentina that are currently experiencing a fiat currency crisis.
March 4, 2019
The channel at around $4,000 level that previously served as a support area has now turned into resistance. The price has been tested twice last week, which means that the next time it reaches that limit we should see a major movement.
The price didn’t see a lot of action in the past week, so let’s have a look at the bigger picture.
On the longer term, it seems like a new bullish ascending triangle is forming. Price level around $4,300 provides a strong resistance line since the end of last year, while higher lows are establishing a support line.
Bitcoin shorts are currently at a very low level that historically indicates an upcoming increase in shorting. Last time it was at such a low level (in July 2018) followed by a 130% increase of shorts and led to a price drop from $7,445 to $6,488 within less than a month.
Ethereum hard fork
After a number of security-related delays, two anticipated upgrades, Constantinople and St. Petersburg, have been officially activated on the Ethereum network. Ethereum was supposed to hard fork earlier this year with Constantinople, however, after finding a significant flaw in the smart contract security, St. Petersburg was introduced to resolve the issue. Constantinople, being a maintenance and optimization update, provides speed, efficiency, energy and consumption improvements. However, it also affects Ethereum miners, who will now instead of three tokens per block will only receive two.
Enjin Coin sees over 200% growth
One coin that has been growing exponentially over the past week is Enjin Coin. The reason for that is an unconfirmed rumour that Enjin is going to back a blockchain wallet for Samsung's latest Galaxy S10 model and that led the price of the coin to rise over 200%.
What’s Enjin, you ask? Enjin is a gaming coin that allows users to create blockchain-based games to prevent fraud and make trading between games possible. They also provide wallets where users can hold several cryptocurrencies, which supposedly will be available on Samsung's new smartphone.
XRP on Coinbase Pro
XRP has finally been added to Coinbase Pro, which is something that has been expected and long-awaited. Considering that Ripple is one of the top 3 cryptocurrencies and has a strong community, it took a while for Coinbase to list XRP. Users can now trade XRP against USD, EUR and BTC.
New digital assets regulations in Russia
Vladimir Putin has approved a list of orders that include regulation of the digital economy, and it consists of following objectives:
- Creation of federal legislation aimed at developing a digital economy
- Determining the procedure for conducting civil-law transactions in the digital form
- Creating a regulatory framework for digital financial assets
- The attraction of financial resources using digital technologies
The deadline for the Russian government to create regulations is set to run out on 1 July 2019.
February 25, 2019
For those who follow bitcoin’s technical analysis the past week has carried quite a significant shift in pattern. Bitcoin broke through a key resistance level, bringing bullish sentiment to the market. The price has been staying above the daily EMA ribbon for most of the entire week and served as a support level for a coming crash on Sunday. In addition, the Relative Strength Index has also reached overbought territory and got corrected over the weekend.
Binance Chain Testnet and DEX launched
Binance’s own blockchain testnet called Binance chain and its new decentralized exchange Binance DEX are now live. Binance chain is claimed to have low latency, only one confirmation finality, low fees and a delegated proof of stake system. Currently, users can only buy and sell pegged coins on Binance DEX, which are redeemable for real tokens back over on the centralized exchange.
Samsung integrates cryptocurrency key storage in its latest Galaxy S10 model
Among its new security features like Samsung’s Knox defense-grade security, Galaxy S10 will include “secure storage backed by hardware, which houses your private keys for blockchain-enabled mobile services”. As far as crypto adoption is concerned, Samsung has sold over 290 million smartphones in 2018. However, the major question remains whether Samsung will develop their own full-scale wallet or will they just provide the support for private key storage for developers to produce their own secure crypto wallets.
Tipping through Bitcoin Lightning Network on Twitter
Tippin.me is a browser extension (currently available only on Chrome and Firefox) that allows Twitter users to tip with Bitcoin through Lightning Network. The project is still in its beta phase and needs further improvements and development. Elizabeth Stark, the CEO of Lightning Labs, shared that she has already been tipped for a tweet.
Elon Musk’s view on crypto
Last week Elon Musk made a statement about crypto in his podcast Interview ARK Invest:
“Paper money is going away. And crypto is a far better way to transfer values than a piece of paper, that’s for sure.” Being one of the most influential people in the world (ranked #25 on the Forbes list). Elon’s opinion on Bitcoin and crypto definitely has some weight.
Google introduces new bitcoin keyboard currency symbol
Major tech companies like Google are starting to see the potential of Bitcoin and are increasingly implementing it into their products. Users can now see the Bitcoin symbol on their Google keyboard (only on iOS mobile devices) listed among major traditional currencies like the Dollar, Euro or Pound.
Although some of the news on their own are not exactly groundbreaking, in compilation they reflect a general sentiment of legitimizing crypto, spreading recognition and mass adoption along with making it easier for people to use Bitcoin.
February 18, 2019
The bitcoin price range has been trapped within a narrow channel moving slightly downward for most of the week, breaking out of it shortly on Sunday, before coming back to the channel again.
On a bigger picture, we have two falling wedges formed within a major triangle. With lower highs and higher low, we are approaching the tip, causing the bitcoin price to move sideways. The triangle provides us with major support and resistance lines since the end of last year. Accompanied by a decreasing volume, it brings us closer to a major breakout.
Despite the prolonged bear market, the fundamentals are going strong:
Two first U.S. Pension funds have dived into investing in crypto
Fairfax County Employees and Fairfax County Police pension plans have invested $40 million into Morgan Creek’s new blockchain venture fund. This shows that even in this bear market, institutional investors still have trust in the crypto industry, opening doors wider for the institutional market.
Nasdaq to add BLX and ELX
On February 25th, Nasdaq has announced its intention to add Bitcoin and Ethereum Indices (Bitcoin Liquid Index and Ethereum Liquid Index) to its Global Index Data Service. This will be made in partnership with Brave New Coin, a blockchain data and research company from New Zealand.
Twitter, Square and Lightning Labs
Jack Dorsey, CEO of Twitter and Square, has been actively involved in the Bitcoin Lightning Network. He gained lots of attention for picking up the Lighting Torch on Twitter (#LNTrustChain). Dorsey is supposedly working with Lightning Labs to implement bitcoin’s Lightning Network into the Square Cash App.
Growth of Lightning Network nodes
The chart above demonstrates the rapid growth of Lightning Network Nodes with channels within a year. This correlates with the Network Capacity that has raised 39% in the past 30 days, which currently makes about 685 BTC or over $2 million (source: https://1ml.com/statistics)
Bitcoin ATM Installations Growth is at the all-time high
As of February 15th, there are 4347 ATMs that have been installed worldwide, which makes it double the number of ATMs in December 2017 when BTC price was at its highest.